Will USD fall to or reach a target Iranian rial rate in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-07 ]
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by July 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reach 1.7M | 2026-07-01 | 99.9% | — | $5.2K | C | 0x1f1548…ddf5 | ||
| Reach 1.8M | 2026-07-10 | 99.9% | — | $4.9K | C | 0x815307…85ce | ||
| Reach 1.9M | 2026-07-19 | 99.1% | — | $7.4K | C | 0xd7f7b8…de26 | ||
| Fall to 1.4M | 2026-07-31 | 2.3% | $450 | $1.5K | C | 0xc9769c…6830 | ||
| Fall to 1.5M | 2026-07-31 | 2.0% | — | $318 | C | 0xf1512c…ea0c | ||
| Fall to 1.6M | 2026-07-31 | 2.8% | $416 | $8.5K | C | 0xe7db42…31cd |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the specified price for any day between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the final exchange rate data point of the specified timeframe is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd sources (3)
- bonbast.com source of record venue-listed
- Bonbast from rules text · editorial
- https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-usd-hit-iranian-rials-by-july-31-20260626150325078/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-usd-hit-iranian-rials-by-july-31-20260626150325078 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-usd-hit-iranian-rials-by-july-31-20260626150325078") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GPFDBMQZM0",
"slug": "will-usd-hit-iranian-rials-by-july-31-20260626150325078",
"question": "Will USD fall to or reach a target Iranian rial rate in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"currency-exchange",
"iran",
"fx-markets",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 27875,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 65,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "bonbast.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bonbast.com",
"url": "https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bonbast",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}