Will USDC reach 50% of USDT's market capitalization by 2026? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2027-01 ]
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.
The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.
This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (5) · single authority
- coingecko.com venue-listed
- coingecko.com venue-listed
- CoinGecko's "historical data" section from rules text · editorial
- https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel from rules text · editorial
- https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31? | polymarket | 2026-01-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- USDC at 50 percent of USDT market cap in 2026 holds at even odds Polymarket 53%
- Polymarket prices USDC reaching 50% of USDT market cap in 2026 at 53%, a near-even call.
- MiCA enforcement removing USDT from EU regulated venues is a structural tailwind for USDC, consistent with slightly-above-even Polymarket pricing.
- Russia whitelisting USDC (Story 36) adds a separate demand-side catalyst that markets may not have fully incorporated at time of pricing.
- Resolves via Coingecko market cap data; the multi-deadline series means earlier deadlines within 2026 count, adding urgency to the MiCA catalyst timing.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-usdc-hit-50-of-usdt-market-cap-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-usdc-hit-50-of-usdt-market-cap-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-usdc-hit-50-of-usdt-market-cap-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QZF44ZSYK3",
"slug": "will-usdc-hit-50-of-usdt-market-cap-by-december-31",
"question": "Will USDC reach 50% of USDT's market capitalization by 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"crypto-prices",
"stablecoin-dominance",
"usdc-vs-usdt",
"market-cap-comparison",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 182767,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CoinGecko",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "coingecko.com",
"url": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "coingecko.com",
"url": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CoinGecko's \"historical data\" section",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}