Will Variational launch a token by a set threshold ? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2026-10 ]
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://x.com/variational_io sources (3)
- x.com venue-listed
- Variational (https://x.com/variational_io) from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Variational launch a token in 2025? | polymarket | 2026-01-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-variational-launch-a-token-in-2025/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-variational-launch-a-token-in-2025 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-variational-launch-a-token-in-2025") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0DS4GXJ3J7",
"slug": "will-variational-launch-a-token-in-2025",
"question": "Will Variational launch a token by ___ ?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"token-launch",
"variational",
"cryptocurrency-projects",
"tokenomics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 363384,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://x.com/variational_io",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/variational_io",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Variational (https://x.com/variational_io)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}