Will Xi Jinping visit the US before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | $711 | $614K | C | 0xd7e906…32ec |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
If Xi Jinping visits the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from the US or China from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | polymarket | 2026-09-24 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Xi US visit nears full pricing on Polymarket Polymarket 100%
- The Polymarket contract on Xi Jinping visiting the US before 2027 prices at 100%, effectively fully resolved.
- The Xi visit is confirmed and underway, so the contract price reflects a completed event rather than forward-looking uncertainty.
- The Kalshi contract on Xi visiting the United States also sits at 99%, consistent with the event being treated as a done fact across venues.
- Resolves via uma_oracle on Polymarket; with the visit actively occurring, resolution is a formality.
- Xi Jinping US visit before 2027 fully priced in at 100 percent Polymarket 100%
- The Polymarket prediction market prices Xi Jinping visiting the US before 2027 at 100%, indicating the event is treated as already confirmed.
- ABC News reporting on a Trump-Xi meeting is consistent with and effectively confirms the Polymarket contract at full pricing.
- The companion Kalshi contract on Xi visiting the United States also sits at 98%, showing cross-venue alignment with near-certain consensus.
- Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle upon documented confirmation of Xi's US presence.
- Xi Jinping US visit before 2027 fully priced in at 100 percent Polymarket 100%
- Polymarket prices the Xi Jinping US visit before 2027 at 100%, reflecting that the visit has already occurred or is already confirmed beyond dispute.
- Multiple news outlets confirm Xi rolled into the Trump summit on September 21, making this contract effectively resolved in fact even if not yet formally settled.
- The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships sits at 64%, unrelated but worth noting that the diplomatic summit has not visibly shifted domestic political pricing.
- Resolution via UMA oracle will confirm the visit against public record; at 100%, no residual uncertainty remains in the market.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-xi-jinping-visit-us-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-xi-jinping-visit-us-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-xi-jinping-visit-us-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LKD4XHGN64",
"slug": "will-xi-jinping-visit-us-before-2027",
"question": "Will Xi Jinping visit the US before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"geopolitics",
"us-china-relations",
"state-visit",
"diplomacy",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 613942,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the US or China",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}