Will a Democrat win the Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary? [ resolved 2026-08-11 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Crowley | 2026-08-11 | 100.0% | $3.8K | $37K | A | 0xf23716…c1f7 | ||
| Mandela Barnes | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | $47K | A | 0x0f1843…7d94 | ||
| Francesca Hong | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | $8.3K | $96K | A | 0x00925a…51de | ||
| Missy Hughes | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | $4.7K | A | 0xe77345…5586 | ||
| Brett Hulsey | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | $4.8K | A | 0x759155…1dc2 | ||
| Sara Rodriguez | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | $302 | $52K | A | 0x6bb7b4…4925 | ||
| Zachary Roper | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | $5.4K | A | 0xaceb04…c7dc | ||
| Kelda Roys | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | $38 | $15K | A | 0x80c407…d2b2 | ||
| Tim Jacobson | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | $4.5K | A | 0x5df504…f5b8 | ||
| Joel Brennan | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | $255 | $14K | A | 0xdda5ff…4e7b | ||
| Melissa Agard | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | $5.3K | A | 0x85c557…cbbd | ||
| Chris Larson | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | $13K | A | 0xeb823d…15f0 | ||
| Tom Nelson | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | $5.0K | A | 0xd07d74…ff11 | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6a21de…d785 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xeba6ae…ba15 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x01cd24…113a | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfe1035…7dfb | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3cbd23…a683 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x659172…9784 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5353c4…77ba | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4aeaa8…0b0b | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd55401…cd5d | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x190f16…cca8 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1a15fd…4712 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x48c305…8cdb | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe7d20d…319a | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x086565…bc80 | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x36ed06…3d3f | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb3d8ea…2003 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
Wisconsin Democratic Party committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Tom Nelson win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Melissa Agard win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tim Jacobson win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Zachary Roper win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Brett Hulsey win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Chris Larson win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Joel Brennan win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Kelda Roys win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Missy Hughes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
| YES | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-12 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (13 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Rodriguez Wisconsin primary bid draws skeptical capital at 17% 17% · $11K 24h
- 17% price tags Sara Rodriguez as a clear underdog in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic governor primary.
- $11,430 in 24h represents 28% of all-time volume, indicating a sharp burst of fresh market attention.
- Sudden attention on a low-probability candidate often precedes a news catalyst, endorsement, poll, or entry.
- Resolution tied to Wisconsin Democratic primary election date; field and frontrunner dynamics still fluid.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CDL1PJHC16",
"slug": "wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner",
"question": "Will a Democrat win the Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"wisconsin",
"democratic-primary",
"us-governor"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 302198,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Wisconsin Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Wisconsin Democratic Party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}