Which countries will experience a recession before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which countries will have recessions | 2026-12-31 | 37.0% | — | $27K | A | WRECSS-26-UK | ||
| Which countries will have recessions | 2026-12-31 | 35.1% | $98 | $12K | A | WRECSS-26-JP | ||
| Which countries will have recessions | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $1.8K | A | WRECSS-26-IN | ||
| Which countries will have recessions | 2026-12-31 | 7.7% | — | $2.6K | A | WRECSS-26-PRC |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | IMF | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If United Kingdom has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The exact dataset for United Kingdom is GDP, Real, Seasonally Adjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "IMF" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- IMF source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/wrecss-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/wrecss-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("wrecss-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-284V3KPHS0",
"slug": "wrecss-26",
"question": "Which countries will experience a recession before 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"recession-prediction",
"macroeconomic-conditions",
"multi-country",
"gdp-contraction",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 43219,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 97,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "IMF",
"resolution_source_url": "https://data.imf.org/?sk=4c514d48-b6ba-49ed-8ab9-52b0c1a0179b&sId=-1",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "IMF",
"url": "https://data.imf.org/?sk=4c514d48-b6ba-49ed-8ab9-52b0c1a0179b&sId=-1",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}