Will any country experience a recession before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Which countries will have recessions?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 4 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Which countries will have recessions	2026-12-31	41.7%	$108	$30K	A	`WRECSS-26-UK`
Which countries will have recessions	2026-12-31	24.4%	$198	$8.0K	A	`WRECSS-26-JP`
Which countries will have recessions	2026-12-31	7.5%	—	$1.5K	A	`WRECSS-26-IN`
Which countries will have recessions	2026-12-31	1.7%	—	$565	A	`WRECSS-26-PRC`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	data.imf.org	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 4 markets · share this text

If United Kingdom has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The exact dataset for United Kingdom is GDP, Real, Seasonally Adjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "data.imf.org" ↗

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/wrecss-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/wrecss-26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("wrecss-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-284V3KPHS0",
  "slug": "wrecss-26",
  "question": "Will any country experience a recession before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "recession-prediction",
    "macroeconomic-conditions",
    "multi-country",
    "gdp-contraction",
    "2027"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 39877,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 84,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "data.imf.org",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://data.imf.org/?sk=4c514d48-b6ba-49ed-8ab9-52b0c1a0179b&sId=-1",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →