Will the Republican Party nominee win the Wyoming Governor primary by 2026? [ resolved 2026-08-18 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 31 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Barlow | 2026-08-18 | 100.0% | $164 | $28K | A | 0xfb4818…e11b | ||
| Brent Bien | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | $12 | $7.5K | A | 0x2feb40…acc7 | ||
| Joseph Kibler | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $8.4K | A | 0xcf7f58…7449 | ||
| Reid Rasner | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $4.0K | A | 0x828cf0…3141 | ||
| Bo Biteman | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $3.8K | A | 0x7c20de…bce2 | ||
| Megan Degenfelder | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | $218 | $26K | A | 0xa875e0…78b6 | ||
| Chuck Gray | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $2.2K | A | 0x372945…fae0 | ||
| Chip Neiman | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $2.9K | A | 0x08b115…34c5 | ||
| Ogen Driskill | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $1.9K | A | 0x1aa00a…cf10 | ||
| Mark Gordon | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $3.1K | A | 0x3d9802…f273 | ||
| Harriet Hageman | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $4.3K | A | 0xb1040b…4aa9 | ||
| Curt Meier | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $2.5K | A | 0x8910b0…6a75 | ||
| Tara Nethercott | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $3.1K | A | 0x42610e…ac1c | ||
| Cheri Steinmetz | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $2.5K | A | 0x857492…2dc0 | ||
| Paul Ulrich | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $2.7K | A | 0xb03c13…4a46 | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x18dd3b…ca95 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8f517e…9864 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2e0f06…549f | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc4d149…75fe | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xee9867…6200 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa45596…6b27 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe36dfd…7a97 | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd651b6…0c4e | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4a10fc…f88c | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x098c2f…9c76 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x590a7e…1a68 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe6c084…fdc3 | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x83259f…bc4b | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa0f324…a71e | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x26fb37…f1fd | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3227bd…47a7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wyoming, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Wyoming Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wyoming Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
Wyoming Republican Party committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Chip Neiman win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ogen Driskill win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mark Gordon win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Harriet Hageman win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Curt Meier win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tara Nethercott win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Cheri Steinmetz win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Paul Ulrich win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Joseph Kibler win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Reid Rasner win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Bo Biteman win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Chuck Gray win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| YES | Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 100% |
| NO | Will Brent Bien win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (15 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Degenfelder trails Barlow in Wyoming primary at 22% 22% · $16K 24h
- 22% prices Degenfelder as a clear underdog against Barlow in the Republican primary.
- $16K in 24h represents 27% of all-time volume, notable given the paired Barlow spike.
- Mirror-image volume with Spike 5 suggests traders actively rotating between the two candidates.
- Resolves on the same Wyoming Republican gubernatorial primary result.
- Barlow leads Wyoming GOP governor primary at 77% 77% · $30K 24h
- 77% makes Barlow a strong but not certain primary favorite heading into the vote.
- $30K in 24h, 40% of all-time Polymarket volume, a decisive single-session share.
- Primary timing and local polling likely catalyzing final-stretch positioning.
- Resolves on Wyoming Republican gubernatorial primary result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/wyoming-governor-republican-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/wyoming-governor-republican-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("wyoming-governor-republican-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZZBTDSPX00",
"slug": "wyoming-governor-republican-primary-winner",
"question": "Will the Republican Party nominee win the Wyoming Governor primary by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"wyoming",
"republican-primary",
"2026",
"governor"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 31,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 102855,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Wyoming Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Wyoming Republican Party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}