Will Zelenskyy be out as Ukraine president by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $2.8K | $2.85M | C | 0x51f624…c803 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Odds on Zelensky leaving office before 2027 remain a long shot Polymarket 8%
- Polymarket prices 8% odds that Zelensky will be out as Ukraine president by end of 2026, resolving via UMA oracle, and trading volume surged 6,419% day over day.
- The volume spike, 65 times the prior day's level, signals this contract is drawing intense fresh attention amid the Russian strike escalation and US peace envoy visit.
- The current 8% price means the market still treats Zelensky's removal as a long shot, but the volume surge flags that traders are actively reassessing the scenario.
- Companion Polymarket contract on US recognizing Russian sovereignty over Ukraine (CM-EVT-T1H8NR4G99) sits at just 4%, suggesting the market sees neither a Zelensky exit nor a US capitulation as likely near-term.
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 8%
- Polymarket puts only 8% on Zelenskyy leaving the Ukrainian presidency by the end of 2026, a firm long-shot read.
- Zelenskyy's active diplomatic role, submitting peace proposals to Washington, is consistent with a market that does not see his departure as imminent.
- Ongoing Russian attacks and North Korean missile use raise conflict-escalation risks, but the market is not pricing political instability for Zelenskyy at this level.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; contract covers any departure mechanism including resignation, removal, or death, the resolution scope is broad.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-355Q75KD17",
"slug": "zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027",
"question": "Will Zelenskyy be out as Ukraine president by the end of 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"ukraine-politics",
"executive-succession",
"2026",
"political-leadership",
"eastern-europe"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2853912,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}