Bitcoin trimmed mean by August 31 priced in the $67.5K-$70K range

Name: Bitcoin trimmed mean by August 31 priced in the $67.5K-$70K range
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026080708 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-91N8R2ZK22 | published: 2026-08-07

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder puts the BTC trimmed mean by August 31 in the $67,500-$70,000 range: 54% above $67,500, 29% above $70,000.
Bitcoin hit an August peak near $65,340 on the jobs miss day; the ladder implies the market is pricing modest further upside from current levels.
The separate Bitcoin-above-$100,000-by-September-1 ladder (CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99) sits at only 1-11% across strikes, confirming the $67,500-$70,000 range as the realistic near-term consensus.
Resolves via CoinDesk or equivalent price reference for BTC trimmed mean at 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Bitcoin broke above $65,000 as the July jobs miss fueled expectations of a Fed hold, boosting risk assets including crypto.exa_search → cointelegraph.com · as_of 2026-08-09T08:36:33+00:00
publisher: cointelegraph.com
published_at: 2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-tags-653k-august-high-as-low-us-jobs-numbers-cool-fed-rate-bets

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder resolves via BTC trimmed mean data by August 31; distribution suggests payrolls-driven crypto rally is priced to continue modestly but not explosively.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-7000000

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-trimmed-mean-by-aug-31-seen-67-5k-70k-kalshi-54-29-2026-08-07/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-trimmed-mean-by-aug-31-seen-67-5k-70k-kalshi-54-29-2026-08-07.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("btc-trimmed-mean-by-aug-31-seen-67-5k-70k-kalshi-54-29-2026-08-07")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080708",
  "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-91N8R2ZK22",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean price by August 31, 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts the BTC trimmed mean by August 31 in the $67,500-$70,000 range: 54% above $67,500, 29% above $70,000.",
    "Bitcoin hit an August peak near $65,340 on the jobs miss day; the ladder implies the market is pricing modest further upside from current levels.",
    "The separate Bitcoin-above-$100,000-by-September-1 ladder (CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99) sits at only 1-11% across strikes, confirming the $67,500-$70,000 range as the realistic near-term consensus.",
    "Resolves via CoinDesk or equivalent price reference for BTC trimmed mean at 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cointelegraph.com",
          "source_url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-tags-653k-august-high-as-low-us-jobs-numbers-cool-fed-rate-bets",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-09T08:36:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin broke above $65,000 as the July jobs miss fueled expectations of a Fed hold, boosting risk assets including crypto.",
      "publisher": "cointelegraph.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-tags-653k-august-high-as-low-us-jobs-numbers-cool-fed-rate-bets"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via BTC trimmed mean data by August 31; distribution suggests payrolls-driven crypto rally is priced to continue modestly but not explosively."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-7000000",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cointelegraph.com: US Nonfarm Payrolls Miss Sends Bitcoin Above $65,000",
      "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-tags-653k-august-high-as-low-us-jobs-numbers-cool-fed-rate-bets",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-09T08:36:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026080708 published 2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-bac9986826f… ← underlying event all signals →