Republican wins Florida House district FL-10 stays heavily favored

Name: Republican wins Florida House district FL-10 stays heavily favored
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-19T01:30:25.994Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 94%

record: CMSIG2026081907 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-T5CGMYTX62 | published: 2026-08-19

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices 94% on the Republican candidate winning the FL-10 House seat in 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.
Donalds vacating FL-10 for the governor's race opens the seat, yet the market treats it as a near-certain Republican hold, the seat's partisan lean is not seen as threatened.
A companion contract (CM-EVT-2NN6LKDWW9) at 99% on the Democratic nominee for Florida's 27th congressional district being determined confirms Florida primary resolution is nearly complete on the Democratic side.
Resolves via UMA oracle on the general election result; outcome depends on who the GOP nominates to replace Donalds in FL-10.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Byron Donalds won the Republican nomination for Florida governor, setting up the general election matchup against David Jolly for Democrats.exa_search → BBC · as_of 2026-08-19T08:31:28+00:00
publisher: BBC
published_at: 2026-08-19T01:30:25.994Z
source_url: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpvwgym9xl9o

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 94% treats FL-10 as a safe Republican seat despite the open-seat dynamics created by Donalds' governor run.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/fl-10-house-election-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x92af18b5a8e041263bdf14ba26de45aec9677fa539fb95cdb637168596703b01

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-wins-fl-10-house-seat-in-2026-polymarket-94-2026-08-19/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-wins-fl-10-house-seat-in-2026-polymarket-94-2026-08-19.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("gop-wins-fl-10-house-seat-in-2026-polymarket-94-2026-08-19")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081907",
  "published_at": "2026-08-19T01:30:25.994Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5CGMYTX62",
  "target_event_slug": "fl-10-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican candidate win the FL-10 House seat in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 94% on the Republican candidate winning the FL-10 House seat in 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Donalds vacating FL-10 for the governor's race opens the seat, yet the market treats it as a near-certain Republican hold, the seat's partisan lean is not seen as threatened.",
    "A companion contract (CM-EVT-2NN6LKDWW9) at 99% on the Democratic nominee for Florida's 27th congressional district being determined confirms Florida primary resolution is nearly complete on the Democratic side.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle on the general election result; outcome depends on who the GOP nominates to replace Donalds in FL-10."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "BBC",
          "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpvwgym9xl9o",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-19T08:31:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Byron Donalds won the Republican nomination for Florida governor, setting up the general election matchup against David Jolly for Democrats.",
      "publisher": "BBC",
      "published_at": "2026-08-19T01:30:25.994Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpvwgym9xl9o"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 94% treats FL-10 as a safe Republican seat despite the open-seat dynamics created by Donalds' governor run."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/fl-10-house-election-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "BBC: Byron Donalds and David Jolly projected to win Florida primary to repl",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpvwgym9xl9o",
      "published_at": "2026-08-19T01:30:25.994Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-19T08:31:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026081907 published 2026-08-19T01:30:25.994Z signature sha256-15ddc92d317… ← underlying event all signals →