Betting picks up on an Iran coup attempt, odds stay at 12%

Name: Betting picks up on an Iran coup attempt, odds stay at 12%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-22T07:48:28+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

12% · $35K 24h

record: CMSIG20261022VS03 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-RD45F72C85 | published: 2026-10-22

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices an Iran coup attempt by December 31 at 12%, low probability but elevated for a regime-change event.
25% of all-time volume cleared in 24h, hitting the all-time quarterly pace threshold in a single session.
Coup-contract volume spikes often cluster around protest escalation, elite defection rumors, or cross-border pressure.
Resolves December 31, 2026 on a defined coup attempt against the Iranian government.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $35.5K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x13faa876e0bc41ff44bd250ed3745bd62d33763e727f2193d3dfb5e789008fce

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31-vol-35474/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31-vol-35474.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31-vol-35474")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261022VS03",
  "published_at": "2026-10-22T07:48:28+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RD45F72C85",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will there be a coup attempt in Iran by the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices an Iran coup attempt by December 31 at 12%, low probability but elevated for a regime-change event.",
    "25% of all-time volume cleared in 24h, hitting the all-time quarterly pace threshold in a single session.",
    "Coup-contract volume spikes often cluster around protest escalation, elite defection rumors, or cross-border pressure.",
    "Resolves December 31, 2026 on a defined coup attempt against the Iranian government."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 35474.111112
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will there be a coup attempt in Iran by the end of 2026",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T07:48:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20261022VS03 published 2026-10-22T07:48:28+00:00 signature sha256-936201d25ba… ← underlying event all signals →