Iran nuclear test before 2027 remains a long shot despite missile news

Name: Iran nuclear test before 2027 remains a long shot despite missile news
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 4%

record: CMSIG2026102905 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-YQ6BFV3GX1 | published: 2026-10-29

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract on an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 sits at 4%, despite an active week of proliferation headlines.
The UN nuclear chief's report that Iran has not repaired damaged facilities is consistent with the market's low probability, the infrastructure for a test appears absent.
Trading volume on this contract surged 17,043% day over day, signaling the proliferation headlines are drawing sharp attention even as the price holds low.
The Kalshi contract on Trump visiting Iran (CM-EVT-V9QGT2SSP7) sits at just 2%, suggesting the market sees diplomacy as even less likely than a test, both tail risks remain priced near zero.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Proliferation news includes Putin test-firing a nuclear-capable missile, North Korea missile launches, and a UN nuclear chief report that Iran has not repaired facilities damaged in US strikes.exa_search → carnegieendowment.org · as_of 2026-10-30T07:48:00+00:00
publisher: carnegieendowment.org
published_at: 2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://carnegieendowment.org/programs/nuclear-policy/proliferation-news/proliferation-news-october-29-2026

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket holds Iran nuclear test odds at 4% despite a surge in volume, consistent with UN reporting that Iran's nuclear facilities remain damaged.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x765e5daae966128da2acac8edab65d23abcabcf8958563a490d24c3498812c85

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-29/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-29.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("iran-nuclear-test-before-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-29")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102905",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YQ6BFV3GX1",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-nuclear-test-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Iran conduct a nuclear test before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 sits at 4%, despite an active week of proliferation headlines.",
    "The UN nuclear chief's report that Iran has not repaired damaged facilities is consistent with the market's low probability, the infrastructure for a test appears absent.",
    "Trading volume on this contract surged 17,043% day over day, signaling the proliferation headlines are drawing sharp attention even as the price holds low.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Trump visiting Iran (CM-EVT-V9QGT2SSP7) sits at just 2%, suggesting the market sees diplomacy as even less likely than a test, both tail risks remain priced near zero."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "carnegieendowment.org",
          "source_url": "https://carnegieendowment.org/programs/nuclear-policy/proliferation-news/proliferation-news-october-29-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T07:48:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Proliferation news includes Putin test-firing a nuclear-capable missile, North Korea missile launches, and a UN nuclear chief report that Iran has not repaired facilities damaged in US strikes.",
      "publisher": "carnegieendowment.org",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://carnegieendowment.org/programs/nuclear-policy/proliferation-news/proliferation-news-october-29-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket holds Iran nuclear test odds at 4% despite a surge in volume, consistent with UN reporting that Iran's nuclear facilities remain damaged."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "carnegieendowment.org: Proliferation News October 29, 2026 | Carnegie Endowment for Internati",
      "url": "https://carnegieendowment.org/programs/nuclear-policy/proliferation-news/proliferation-news-october-29-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T07:48:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026102905 published 2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-c7b44c7ace8… ← underlying event all signals →