Michigan Senate Democratic primary second-place finish near fully priced

Name: Michigan Senate Democratic primary second-place finish near fully priced
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-05T16:34:06.425Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 99%

record: CMSIG2026080506 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-KW32LYSWB7 | published: 2026-08-05

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices 99% on the Michigan Senate Democratic primary second-place finisher being determined, with trading volume up 276x day-over-day, a near-certain settlement.
El-Sayed's victory over Stevens is the catalyst; at 99%, Kalshi treats the result as effectively resolved.
Volume surging 276x day-over-day confirms this was a heavily traded event on primary night as results came in.
Kalshi also prices 81% on El-Sayed, Flanagan, and Hong all winning their respective primaries (CM-EVT-DKZGD9P320), implying the broader progressive slate outcome is not yet fully settled.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed won the Michigan Democratic Senate primary, defeating moderate U.S. Representative Haley Stevens in a close race.exa_search → BBC · as_of 2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00
publisher: BBC
published_at: 2026-08-05T16:34:06.425Z
source_url: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgdkpz07kvo

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract resolves via official election authority; the 276x volume spike reflects primary-night settlement activity on August 4-5.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPRIMARYPLACE-SENATEMID26-2-HSTE

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/mi-senate-dem-primary-2nd-place-kalshi-99-2026-08-05/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/mi-senate-dem-primary-2nd-place-kalshi-99-2026-08-05.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("mi-senate-dem-primary-2nd-place-kalshi-99-2026-08-05")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080506",
  "published_at": "2026-08-05T16:34:06.425Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KW32LYSWB7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2",
  "event_question": "Who will finish in second place in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 99% on the Michigan Senate Democratic primary second-place finisher being determined, with trading volume up 276x day-over-day, a near-certain settlement.",
    "El-Sayed's victory over Stevens is the catalyst; at 99%, Kalshi treats the result as effectively resolved.",
    "Volume surging 276x day-over-day confirms this was a heavily traded event on primary night as results came in.",
    "Kalshi also prices 81% on El-Sayed, Flanagan, and Hong all winning their respective primaries (CM-EVT-DKZGD9P320), implying the broader progressive slate outcome is not yet fully settled."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "BBC",
          "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgdkpz07kvo",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed won the Michigan Democratic Senate primary, defeating moderate U.S. Representative Haley Stevens in a close race.",
      "publisher": "BBC",
      "published_at": "2026-08-05T16:34:06.425Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgdkpz07kvo"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via official election authority; the 276x volume spike reflects primary-night settlement activity on August 4-5."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPRIMARYPLACE-SENATEMID26-2-HSTE",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "BBC: Left-wing political outsider wins Democratic Senate primary in Michiga",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgdkpz07kvo",
      "published_at": "2026-08-05T16:34:06.425Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026080506 published 2026-08-05T16:34:06.425Z signature sha256-13ec7d808a0… ← underlying event all signals →