Unemployment staying well under 5 percent stays the consensus
Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026110603 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0 | published: 2026-11-06
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi ladder puts only 9% on unemployment reaching 4.5% before 2027, with probabilities falling sharply above that level.
- October's 165,000 payroll beat and 4.1% unemployment print are consistent with the ladder's strong lean toward sub-4.5% peak unemployment.
- Probabilities above 5.0% are in the low single digits, indicating the market is not pricing any near-term labor market breakdown.
- Ladder resolution depends on official BLS unemployment readings through the end of 2026.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the 59,000 Wall Street forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.exa_search → Jeff Cox · as_of 2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- Jeff Cox
- published_at
- 2026-11-06T13:31:05.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi ladder distribution; the strong October jobs report reinforces the market's existing low-unemployment consensus.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxu3max-27/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/peak-unemployment-before-2027-kalshi-ladder-below-4-5-2026-11-06/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/peak-unemployment-before-2027-kalshi-ladder-below-4-5-2026-11-06.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("peak-unemployment-before-2027-kalshi-ladder-below-4-5-2026-11-06") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026110603",
"published_at": "2026-11-06T13:31:05.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
"target_event_slug": "kxu3max-27",
"event_question": "Peak US unemployment rate before 2027",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi ladder puts only 9% on unemployment reaching 4.5% before 2027, with probabilities falling sharply above that level.",
"October's 165,000 payroll beat and 4.1% unemployment print are consistent with the ladder's strong lean toward sub-4.5% peak unemployment.",
"Probabilities above 5.0% are in the low single digits, indicating the market is not pricing any near-term labor market breakdown.",
"Ladder resolution depends on official BLS unemployment readings through the end of 2026."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "Jeff Cox",
"source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/06/jobs-report-october-2026.html",
"retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the 59,000 Wall Street forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.",
"publisher": "Jeff Cox",
"published_at": "2026-11-06T13:31:05.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/06/jobs-report-october-2026.html"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi ladder distribution; the strong October jobs report reinforces the market's existing low-unemployment consensus."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxu3max-27/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXU3MAX-27-4.5",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "Jeff Cox: U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, way more than expected; un",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/06/jobs-report-october-2026.html",
"published_at": "2026-11-06T13:31:05.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1