Putin-Zelenskyy summit by June 30 wavers near zero pricing

Name: Putin-Zelenskyy summit by June 30 wavers near zero pricing
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-05T18:04:27.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 1%

record: CMSIG2026060503 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-2DR1P4YZ13 | published: 2026-06-05

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices only 1% on Putin meeting Zelenskyy by June 30, effectively treating the event as ruled out.
Putin's open-letter rejection of Zelenskyy's direct-talks proposal is fully consistent with this near-zero probability.
The longer-horizon Polymarket contract on a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire by December 31, 2026 sits at 49%, showing the market sees a longer timeline as possible even as near-term diplomacy is dismissed.
Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; a confirmed bilateral summit meeting would be required, not a phone call or third-party mediation.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's written proposal for direct face-to-face peace negotiations.exa_search → AFP , AP and Reuters · as_of 2026-06-06T10:00:26+00:00
publisher: AFP , AP and Reuters
published_at: 2026-06-05T18:04:27.000Z
source_url: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/5/russias-putin-says-no-point-meeting-ukraines-zelenskyy-for-now

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 1% price leaves no meaningful probability on any summit this month.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-by-june-30-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xc5ab3fb332af0bebf7ed6df1b1d5e1cc32a91e960c57d7602a5224830cf0084b

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/putin-meets-zelenskyy-by-june-30-polymarket-1-2026-06-05/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/putin-meets-zelenskyy-by-june-30-polymarket-1-2026-06-05.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("putin-meets-zelenskyy-by-june-30-polymarket-1-2026-06-05")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060503",
  "published_at": "2026-06-05T18:04:27.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2DR1P4YZ13",
  "target_event_slug": "will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-by-june-30-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 1% on Putin meeting Zelenskyy by June 30, effectively treating the event as ruled out.",
    "Putin's open-letter rejection of Zelenskyy's direct-talks proposal is fully consistent with this near-zero probability.",
    "The longer-horizon Polymarket contract on a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire by December 31, 2026 sits at 49%, showing the market sees a longer timeline as possible even as near-term diplomacy is dismissed.",
    "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; a confirmed bilateral summit meeting would be required, not a phone call or third-party mediation."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AFP ,  AP  and  Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/5/russias-putin-says-no-point-meeting-ukraines-zelenskyy-for-now",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-06T10:00:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's written proposal for direct face-to-face peace negotiations.",
      "publisher": "AFP ,  AP  and  Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-06-05T18:04:27.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/5/russias-putin-says-no-point-meeting-ukraines-zelenskyy-for-now"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 1% price leaves no meaningful probability on any summit this month."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-by-june-30-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AFP ,  AP  and  Reuters: Russia’s Putin says ‘no point’ meeting Ukraine’s Zelenskyy for now | R",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/5/russias-putin-says-no-point-meeting-ukraines-zelenskyy-for-now",
      "published_at": "2026-06-05T18:04:27.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-06T10:00:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026060503 published 2026-06-05T18:04:27.000Z signature sha256-f7e5e32233f… ← underlying event all signals →