Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end stays a long shot at 10%

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101306",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 10% odds Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026 under a multi-deadline series, resolving via uma_oracle.",
    "Russia's continuation of city strikes, even while sparing energy targets, is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing on a full ceasefire materializing.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on Ukraine signing a peace deal before 2027 sits at 8%, and a 2026 peace agreement contract is at 5%, all clustering near long-shot territory.",
    "The partial energy-target restraint creates ambiguity for resolution: the market appears to treat an energy pause as distinct from a ceasefire, keeping odds low."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "By: FRANCE 24",
          "source_url": "https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20261013-russia-pounds-ukrainian-cities-spares-energy-targets-for-first-time-since-trump-ceasefire",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T15:32:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia struck Ukrainian cities overnight while appearing to spare energy infrastructure for the first time since the Trump-brokered energy ceasefire announcement.",
      "publisher": "By: FRANCE 24",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20261013-russia-pounds-ukrainian-cities-spares-energy-targets-for-first-time-since-trump-ceasefire"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket holds the Russia-Ukraine 2026 ceasefire at 10%, with peace deal and territory-cession contracts all pricing 5%-8%, reflecting broad market skepticism."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "By: FRANCE 24: Russia pounds Ukrainian cities, spares energy targets for first time s",
      "url": "https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20261013-russia-pounds-ukrainian-cities-spares-energy-targets-for-first-time-since-trump-ceasefire",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T15:32:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}