US recession by end of 2026 stays a long shot at 8%

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081307",
  "published_at": "2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-943Z5Y3NP4",
  "target_event_slug": "us-recession-by-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the United States enter a recession by the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on a US recession by end-2026 sits at 8%, a firmly low reading despite active naval operations near the Strait of Hormuz.",
    "Hegseth's indefinite-blockade signal is a meaningful supply-side risk, yet the market is not pricing a recession as a likely outcome for 2026.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1 also prices the recession probability at 6%, with both venues aligned in dismissing near-term recession risk.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Economic Analysis on Polymarket; settlement requires an official BEA determination of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth within the 2026 window."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Thomson Reuters    ·  Posted: Aug 13, 2026 6:42 PM EDT | Last Updated: August 14",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hegseth-us-blockade-iran-9.7306636",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-15T08:21:50+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US naval blockade of Iran could be maintained indefinitely, raising economic risk from prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption.",
      "publisher": "Thomson Reuters    ·  Posted: Aug 13, 2026 6:42 PM EDT | Last Updated: August 14",
      "published_at": "2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hegseth-us-blockade-iran-9.7306636"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket and Kalshi are tightly aligned at 8% and 6% respectively, offering a cross-venue confirmation that recession risk is being discounted despite geopolitical escalation."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-recession-by-end-of-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Thomson Reuters    ·  Posted: Aug 13, 2026 6:42 PM EDT | Last Updated: August 14: U.S. can maintain 'indefinite' naval blockade of Iran if needed, Hegse",
      "url": "https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hegseth-us-blockade-iran-9.7306636",
      "published_at": "2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-15T08:21:50+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}