US recession by end of 2026 stays a long shot at 41%

Name: US recession by end of 2026 stays a long shot at 41%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-14T15:41:15.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 59%

record: CMSIG2026081402 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-Z32WPK4K45 | published: 2026-08-14

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts 59% odds on the US economy being in recession by end of 2026, with 41% against.
Soft macro data, including the July retail sales drop, is consistent with recession concern, but the 59% price suggests markets remain divided rather than alarmed.
The S&P 500 crossing 7,800 and soft-landing trade momentum sit in tension with a market that still prices recession as the more likely outcome.
Resolution via UMA oracle; the binary settle on official recession determination leaves meaningful timing ambiguity near year-end.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Fed September rate hike odds fell to 30% as inflation, jobs, and spending cooled, while the S&P 500 topped 7,800 on soft-landing optimism.exa_search → tradingkey.com · as_of 2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00
publisher: tradingkey.com
published_at: 2026-08-14T15:41:15.000Z
source_url: https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262108725-fed-september-hike-cools-soft-landing-sp500-7800-tradingkey

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on official US recession designation; the 59% price reflects genuine macro uncertainty rather than a consensus call.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x50e3ee8f93a464d04ea2cea6efff45c902f43642aedbf43f7afdc899e10f71d8

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recession-end-2026-polymarket-59-2026-08-14/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recession-end-2026-polymarket-59-2026-08-14.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-recession-end-2026-polymarket-59-2026-08-14")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081402",
  "published_at": "2026-08-14T15:41:15.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-Z32WPK4K45",
  "target_event_slug": "us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the US economy be in recession at the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 59% odds on the US economy being in recession by end of 2026, with 41% against.",
    "Soft macro data, including the July retail sales drop, is consistent with recession concern, but the 59% price suggests markets remain divided rather than alarmed.",
    "The S&P 500 crossing 7,800 and soft-landing trade momentum sit in tension with a market that still prices recession as the more likely outcome.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; the binary settle on official recession determination leaves meaningful timing ambiguity near year-end."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tradingkey.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262108725-fed-september-hike-cools-soft-landing-sp500-7800-tradingkey",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Fed September rate hike odds fell to 30% as inflation, jobs, and spending cooled, while the S&P 500 topped 7,800 on soft-landing optimism.",
      "publisher": "tradingkey.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T15:41:15.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262108725-fed-september-hike-cools-soft-landing-sp500-7800-tradingkey"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on official US recession designation; the 59% price reflects genuine macro uncertainty rather than a consensus call."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tradingkey.com: Fed September Rate Hike Expectations Drop to 30% as Inflation, Jobs, a",
      "url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262108725-fed-september-hike-cools-soft-landing-sp500-7800-tradingkey",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T15:41:15.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026081402 published 2026-08-14T15:41:15.000Z signature sha256-bc60b46adab… ← underlying event all signals →