Democrats stay favored in WI-3 House race as trading picks up

Name: Democrats stay favored in WI-3 House race as trading picks up
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-19T07:47:59+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

72% · $34K 24h

record: CMSIG20260919VS02 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-6C7CNWJ6R7 | published: 2026-09-19

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices Democrats at 72%, a meaningful but not commanding lead in a swing-district contest.
41% of all-time volume hitting in 24 hours suggests new polling, a candidate event, or ad-spend data moved the market.
WI-3 is a bellwether rural-suburban district; fresh volume here reflects heightened House-majority-margin sensitivity.
Resolution tied to November 2026 general election results.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $34.0K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/housewi3-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWI3-26-D

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-a-democrat-win-the-house-race-for-w-vol-34026/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-a-democrat-win-the-house-race-for-w-vol-34026.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-a-democrat-win-the-house-race-for-w-vol-34026")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260919VS02",
  "published_at": "2026-09-19T07:47:59+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6C7CNWJ6R7",
  "target_event_slug": "housewi3-26",
  "event_question": "WI-03 House winner?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Democrats at 72%, a meaningful but not commanding lead in a swing-district contest.",
    "41% of all-time volume hitting in 24 hours suggests new polling, a candidate event, or ad-spend data moved the market.",
    "WI-3 is a bellwether rural-suburban district; fresh volume here reflects heightened House-majority-margin sensitivity.",
    "Resolution tied to November 2026 general election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 34026.08
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/housewi3-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWI3-26-D",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: WI-03 House winner?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/housewi3-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T07:47:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260919VS02 published 2026-09-19T07:47:59+00:00 signature sha256-51117d5fc23… ← underlying event all signals →