BTC above $82.5K by Aug 31 sits at a coin-flip, 47%

Name: BTC above $82.5K by Aug 31 sits at a coin-flip, 47%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-21T08:35:56+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

47% · $61K 24h

record: CMSIG20260821VS03 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-91N8R2ZK22 | published: 2026-08-21

4-bullet brief | narrative

At 47%, the $82.5K strike is priced as essentially a coin-flip, the most uncertain of the August BTC ladder.
24h volume of $61K is 53% of all-time, confirming meaningful fresh commitment despite the binary uncertainty.
This strike marks the upper-bound stress test; combined with 67% at $80K, the curve implies limited upside conviction above $82K.
Resolves trimmed-mean 11:59 PM ET Aug 31; any BTC rally in the next 10 days would sharply re-price this contract.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $61.4K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-8250000

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-btc-trimmed-mean-be-above-82500-00-vol-61410/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-btc-trimmed-mean-be-above-82500-00-vol-61410.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-btc-trimmed-mean-be-above-82500-00-vol-61410")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260821VS03",
  "published_at": "2026-08-21T08:35:56+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-91N8R2ZK22",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean price, August 31, 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "At 47%, the $82.5K strike is priced as essentially a coin-flip, the most uncertain of the August BTC ladder.",
    "24h volume of $61K is 53% of all-time, confirming meaningful fresh commitment despite the binary uncertainty.",
    "This strike marks the upper-bound stress test; combined with 67% at $80K, the curve implies limited upside conviction above $82K.",
    "Resolves trimmed-mean 11:59 PM ET Aug 31; any BTC rally in the next 10 days would sharply re-price this contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 61410.52
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-8250000",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: BTC trimmed mean price, August 31, 2026",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T08:35:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260821VS03 published 2026-08-21T08:35:56+00:00 signature sha256-3f81d675935… ← underlying event all signals →