Republicans face steep odds in CA-36, priced at 4%

Name: Republicans face steep odds in CA-36, priced at 4%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-27T13:31:15+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

4% · $15K 24h

record: CMSIG20260927VS02 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-T5L606P9D2 | published: 2026-09-27

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices a Republican win in CA-36 at 4%, effectively ruling out a GOP pickup in this deep-blue district.
24h volume of $15K is 34% of the contract's entire all-time volume, the largest single-day share in this batch.
Heavy trading into a near-zero price suggests either disciplined fading of an outlier scenario or fresh attention ahead of a candidate filing or redistricting development.
Contract resolves on the 2026 CA-36 House general election outcome.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $15.1K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/ca-36-house-election-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x20e049d4e1df60bbb782882618d5808bfc485eb283d61027f04755f5e6ba7592

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-win-the-ca-36-vol-15053/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-win-the-ca-36-vol-15053.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-the-republican-party-win-the-ca-36-vol-15053")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260927VS02",
  "published_at": "2026-09-27T13:31:15+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5L606P9D2",
  "target_event_slug": "ca-36-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the winner of the California's 36th congressional district House election be determined by November 3, 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Republican win in CA-36 at 4%, effectively ruling out a GOP pickup in this deep-blue district.",
    "24h volume of $15K is 34% of the contract's entire all-time volume, the largest single-day share in this batch.",
    "Heavy trading into a near-zero price suggests either disciplined fading of an outlier scenario or fresh attention ahead of a candidate filing or redistricting development.",
    "Contract resolves on the 2026 CA-36 House general election outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 15053.09
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/ca-36-house-election-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the winner of the California's 36th congressional ",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ca-36-house-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T13:31:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260927VS02 published 2026-09-27T13:31:15+00:00 signature sha256-a12c5c4f294… ← underlying event all signals →