Will the margin of victory in Brazil's presidential election first round be less than 5 percentage points? [ resolved 2026-10-05 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 5% | 2026-10-05 | 100.0% | $73 | $7.9K | A | 0x25966b…eb9f | ||
| ≤ 5% | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $144 | $16K | A | 0x5d5b8f…054b | ||
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $58 | $14K | A | 0x5377b1…3227 | ||
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $900 | $16K | A | 0xd99603…38f8 | ||
| ≥ 15% | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $1.8K | $10K | A | 0x9dd422…e03c | ||
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $249 | $4.0K | A | 0x3a539f…30d4 | ||
| ≥ 10% | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $58 | $3.7K | A | 0x277dfe…f3da | ||
| Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $58 | $210K | A | 0x819cc4…e55b | ||
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $58 | $2.6K | A | 0x6f98bf…15e3 | ||
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $58 | $3.2K | A | 0x1ebb9c…3980 | ||
| Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $66 | $4.0K | A | 0xf0918b…f2aa |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (11 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Lula first-round win stays a long shot at 10% 10% · $135K 24h
- Polymarket prices Lula's first-round outright win at just 10%, implying a runoff is near-certain.
- $134,735 traded in 24h, 52% of this contract's entire all-time volume, an extraordinary single-session concentration.
- Fresh attention likely tied to emerging polling or Lula health/eligibility developments ahead of October 2026.
- Resolves YES only if Lula clears 50% in round one; current odds strongly favor a two-round race.
- Traders back Flávio Bolsonaro first-round win at 36% 36% · $42K 24h
- Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro winning the first round outright at 36%, a material but not dominant probability.
- $42,245 in 24h represents 30% of all-time volume, showing sustained conviction on this specific outcome.
- 36% for a first-round majority reflects optimism among the Bolsonaro camp but acknowledges Lula's competitive base.
- Resolves YES only if Bolsonaro surpasses 50% of valid first-round votes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro first-round win holds near zero at 3% 3% · $39K 24h
- This Polymarket contract prices a Flávio Bolsonaro first-round majority at 3%, near-zero probability, effectively ruling it out.
- $38,823 in 24h is 32% of all-time volume, a heavy flush despite the near-zero price.
- High volume on a nearly-dead contract typically signals traders locking in final short positions or closing residual exposure.
- The 3% vs. 36% spread across concurrent Polymarket contracts again flags differing resolution specs, verification is essential.
- Bolsonaro first-round win effectively dead money at 0% 0% · $31K 24h
- Polymarket prices this Flávio Bolsonaro first-round majority contract at 0%, with the market deeming it impossible under current resolution terms.
- $30,606 in 24h is 38% of all-time volume, striking activity for a zero-priced contract.
- Volume at 0% almost certainly reflects final position settlement, contract clarification trading, or eligibility-related resolution approaching.
- Resolves YES only on a first-round outright majority, an outcome the market has fully dismissed.
- Lula first-round odds sit at 53% in separate contract 53% · $54K 24h
- A parallel Polymarket contract prices Lula's first-round win at 53%, sharply diverging from the 9% contract (Spike 1).
- 27% of all-time volume transacted in 24h, indicating active two-sided trading on this alternative framing.
- The pricing gap between contracts suggests different resolution criteria or a market inefficiency drawing arbitrage flow.
- Resolves on Brazil's 2026 first-round election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2NF81BZ4K5",
"slug": "brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory",
"question": "Will the margin of victory in Brazil's presidential election first round be less than 5 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"brazil",
"2026",
"margin-of-victory",
"presidential"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 291226,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
"url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}