Will the margin of victory in Brazil's presidential election first round be less than 5 percentage points? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (73D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 34.0% | $58 | $14K | A | 0x5377b1…3227 | ||
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 28.1% | $900 | $16K | A | 0xd99603…38f8 | ||
| ≤ 5% | 2026-10-04 | 12.0% | $144 | $16K | A | 0x5d5b8f…054b | ||
| ≤ 5% | 2026-10-04 | 6.8% | $73 | $7.9K | A | 0x25966b…eb9f | ||
| ≥ 15% | 2026-10-04 | 8.7% | $1.8K | $10K | A | 0x9dd422…e03c | ||
| Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-04 | 1.6% | $58 | $210K | A | 0x819cc4…e55b | ||
| Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-04 | 1.6% | $66 | $4.0K | A | 0xf0918b…f2aa | ||
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-04 | 0.5% | $249 | $4.0K | A | 0x3a539f…30d4 | ||
| ≥ 10% | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | $58 | $3.7K | A | 0x277dfe…f3da | ||
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $58 | $2.6K | A | 0x6f98bf…15e3 | ||
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $58 | $3.2K | A | 0x1ebb9c…3980 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · single authority
- dadosabertos.tse.jus.br venue-listed
- Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2NF81BZ4K5",
"slug": "brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory",
"question": "Will the margin of victory in Brazil's presidential election first round be less than 5 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"brazil",
"2026",
"margin-of-victory",
"presidential"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 291226,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
"url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}