Traders back Flávio Bolsonaro first-round win at 36%

Name: Traders back Flávio Bolsonaro first-round win at 36%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-04T13:40:01+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

36% · $42K 24h

record: CMSIG20261004VS05 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-2NF81BZ4K5 | published: 2026-10-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro winning the first round outright at 36%, a material but not dominant probability.
$42,245 in 24h represents 30% of all-time volume, showing sustained conviction on this specific outcome.
36% for a first-round majority reflects optimism among the Bolsonaro camp but acknowledges Lula's competitive base.
Resolves YES only if Bolsonaro surpasses 50% of valid first-round votes.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $42.2K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x25966b196ffc1682fc77df0298784831a60aea8abe03b9aa4fc219d1422feb9f

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-fl-vio-bolsonaro-win-the-first-roun-vol-42245/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-fl-vio-bolsonaro-win-the-first-roun-vol-42245.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-fl-vio-bolsonaro-win-the-first-roun-vol-42245")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261004VS05",
  "published_at": "2026-10-04T13:40:01+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2NF81BZ4K5",
  "target_event_slug": "brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory",
  "event_question": "Will the margin of victory in Brazil's presidential election first round be less than 5 percentage points?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro winning the first round outright at 36%, a material but not dominant probability.",
    "$42,245 in 24h represents 30% of all-time volume, showing sustained conviction on this specific outcome.",
    "36% for a first-round majority reflects optimism among the Bolsonaro camp but acknowledges Lula's competitive base.",
    "Resolves YES only if Bolsonaro surpasses 50% of valid first-round votes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 42245.28623600001
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the margin of victory in Brazil's presidential ele",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T13:40:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20261004VS05 published 2026-10-04T13:40:01+00:00 signature sha256-fa69fa4c524… ← underlying event all signals →