Will the Federal Reserve make decisions regarding interest rates between April and July? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2026-07 ]
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut–Cut–Pause | 2026-04-29 | 0.3% | — | $8.2K | A | 0xe1d008…e027 | ||
| Cut–Cut–Cut | 2026-04-29 | 1.0% | — | $15K | A | 0xedfcb4…554e | ||
| Cut–Pause–Cut | 2026-04-29 | 0.3% | — | $6.1K | A | 0x63fa88…83bb | ||
| Cut–Pause–Pause | 2026-04-29 | 0.1% | — | $11K | A | 0x61133f…e134 | ||
| Pause–Cut–Pause | 2026-06-17 | 0.9% | — | $7.3K | A | 0x67e026…71aa | ||
| Pause–Cut–Cut | 2026-06-17 | 0.2% | — | $4.9K | A | 0x750e64…e6e8 | ||
| Pause–Pause–Pause | 2026-07-29 | 72.9% | $21K | $411K | A | 0x647fe8…5532 | ||
| Decide differently | 2026-07-29 | 26.2% | $10K | $308K | A | 0x7618e8…d514 | ||
| Pause–Pause–Cut | 2026-07-29 | 0.7% | $3.3K | $80K | A | 0xcc4d67…bdac |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · single authority
- federalreserve.gov venue-listed
- federalreserve.gov venue-listed
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm from rules text · editorial
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-decisions-apr-jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fed-decisions-apr-jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fed-decisions-apr-jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-C0ZG1HDJQ1",
"slug": "fed-decisions-apr-jul",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make decisions regarding interest rates between April and July?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed",
"fed-rates",
"fomc",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rate-decisions"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 851643,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}