Fed action between April and July prices in heavily

Name: Fed action between April and July prices in heavily
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 77%

record: CMSIG2026072604 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-C0ZG1HDJQ1 | published: 2026-07-26

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices a 77% probability the Fed makes a rate decision in the April-to-July window; trading volume on this contract surged 3,484% day over day.
The volume spike, nearly 35 times normal, signals the July FOMC meeting is drawing significant fresh attention to this contract.
At 77%, the contract is consistent with a hold-now-hike-soon narrative rather than a clean pass on the window entirely.
Resolves via UMA oracle; the April-July window closes at the end of the July 29 meeting, making this contract a near-term binary event.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Rising inflation has turned the July Fed meeting into a live rate-hike debate, with the July 28-29 FOMC meeting now a focal point for traders and economists.exa_search → Mary Helen Gillespie Sun, 26 July 2026 at 12:13 pm GMT-7 6 min read · as_of 2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00
publisher: Mary Helen Gillespie Sun, 26 July 2026 at 12:13 pm GMT-7 6 min read
published_at: 2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/rising-inflation-turns-july-fed-191300692.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 35x volume surge on this contract is the clearest signal of fresh market engagement around the July FOMC.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/fed-decisions-apr-jul/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x647fe897e10ecde7f5bf00b420cd00b76634b7de8830ae683136c9d3102c5532

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-decision-apr-jul-window-polymarket-77-2026-07-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-decision-apr-jul-window-polymarket-77-2026-07-26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-rate-decision-apr-jul-window-polymarket-77-2026-07-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072604",
  "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-C0ZG1HDJQ1",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-decisions-apr-jul",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make decisions regarding interest rates between April and July?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 77% probability the Fed makes a rate decision in the April-to-July window; trading volume on this contract surged 3,484% day over day.",
    "The volume spike, nearly 35 times normal, signals the July FOMC meeting is drawing significant fresh attention to this contract.",
    "At 77%, the contract is consistent with a hold-now-hike-soon narrative rather than a clean pass on the window entirely.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the April-July window closes at the end of the July 29 meeting, making this contract a near-term binary event."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Mary Helen Gillespie      Sun, 26 July 2026 at 12:13 pm GMT-7   6 min read",
          "source_url": "https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/rising-inflation-turns-july-fed-191300692.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Rising inflation has turned the July Fed meeting into a live rate-hike debate, with the July 28-29 FOMC meeting now a focal point for traders and economists.",
      "publisher": "Mary Helen Gillespie      Sun, 26 July 2026 at 12:13 pm GMT-7   6 min read",
      "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/rising-inflation-turns-july-fed-191300692.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 35x volume surge on this contract is the clearest signal of fresh market engagement around the July FOMC."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/fed-decisions-apr-jul/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Mary Helen Gillespie      Sun, 26 July 2026 at 12:13 pm GMT-7   6 min read: Rising inflation turns July Fed meeting into rate-hike showdown",
      "url": "https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/rising-inflation-turns-july-fed-191300692.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026072604 published 2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-4cb2558531f… ← underlying event all signals →