Will the Federal Reserve make a decision regarding interest rates between June and September? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2026-09 ]
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut–Cut–Pause | 2026-06-17 | 0.3% | — | $1.3K | A | 0x0db535…f08d | ||
| Cut–Cut–Cut | 2026-06-17 | 0.2% | — | $1.9K | A | 0x8ce59a…894f | ||
| Cut–Pause–Pause | 2026-06-17 | 0.8% | — | $2.2K | A | 0x939991…d8fd | ||
| Cut–Pause–Cut | 2026-06-17 | 0.3% | — | $2.2K | A | 0xe96aaa…a1b4 | ||
| Pause–Cut–Pause | 2026-07-29 | 0.1% | — | $30K | A | 0x2c027d…978e | ||
| Pause–Cut–Cut | 2026-07-29 | 0.1% | — | $18K | A | 0x9288e0…ae9a | ||
| Decide differently | 2026-09-16 | 61.0% | $4.1K | $291K | A | 0x1b56e4…6200 | ||
| Pause–Pause–Pause | 2026-09-16 | 47.0% | $5.5K | $270K | A | 0xd17e44…9a35 | ||
| Pause–Pause–Cut | 2026-09-16 | 2.5% | $632 | $59K | A | 0x3d58ef…7082 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm sources (4) · single authority
federalreserve.gov committed source federalreserve.gov committed source https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm from rules text https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm from rules text
recent wire items
- Fed action between June and September stays below 50% odds Polymarket 35%
- Polymarket prices 35% on the Fed making a rate decision between June and September, implying a hold is the majority expectation for that window.
- Headline and core CPI rising in line with expectations reduces urgency to act; the market pricing is consistent with the 'Fed on hold' narrative dominating coverage.
- Atlanta Fed interim President Cheryl Venable's hawkish commentary on inflation being too high has not pushed this contract above 50%, suggesting the market is not fully endorsing her posture.
- Resolves via UMA oracle based on an official Federal Reserve announcement of a rate change within the specified window.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-decisions-jun-sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fed-decisions-jun-sep |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fed-decisions-jun-sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4G3H125S53",
"slug": "fed-decisions-jun-sep",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision regarding interest rates between June and September?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed",
"fomc",
"fed-rates",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 676117,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "federalreserve.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}