Fed action between June and September stays below 50% odds

Name: Fed action between June and September stays below 50% odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 35%

record: CMSIG2026081203 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-4G3H125S53 | published: 2026-08-12

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices 35% on the Fed making a rate decision between June and September, implying a hold is the majority expectation for that window.
Headline and core CPI rising in line with expectations reduces urgency to act; the market pricing is consistent with the 'Fed on hold' narrative dominating coverage.
Atlanta Fed interim President Cheryl Venable's hawkish commentary on inflation being too high has not pushed this contract above 50%, suggesting the market is not fully endorsing her posture.
Resolves via UMA oracle based on an official Federal Reserve announcement of a rate change within the specified window.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: After soft July CPI came in as expected, analysts and officials increasingly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting.exa_search → koreatimes.co.kr · as_of 2026-08-13T09:07:47+00:00
publisher: koreatimes.co.kr
published_at: 2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260813/fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract at 35% implies the hold camp leads comfortably; volume spike of 9,733% day-over-day on related CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470 signals sharply rising attention on Fed rate action contracts.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/fed-decisions-jun-sep/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x1b56e46dba9e7b2bf93db18e7a79de3f97037314a46f8ebc93b541ae5f396200

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-move-june-sept-window-polymarket-35-2026-08-12/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-move-june-sept-window-polymarket-35-2026-08-12.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-rate-move-june-sept-window-polymarket-35-2026-08-12")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081203",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4G3H125S53",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-decisions-jun-sep",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision regarding interest rates between June and September?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 35% on the Fed making a rate decision between June and September, implying a hold is the majority expectation for that window.",
    "Headline and core CPI rising in line with expectations reduces urgency to act; the market pricing is consistent with the 'Fed on hold' narrative dominating coverage.",
    "Atlanta Fed interim President Cheryl Venable's hawkish commentary on inflation being too high has not pushed this contract above 50%, suggesting the market is not fully endorsing her posture.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle based on an official Federal Reserve announcement of a rate change within the specified window."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "koreatimes.co.kr",
          "source_url": "https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260813/fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-13T09:07:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "After soft July CPI came in as expected, analysts and officials increasingly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting.",
      "publisher": "koreatimes.co.kr",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260813/fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 35% implies the hold camp leads comfortably; volume spike of 9,733% day-over-day on related CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470 signals sharply rising attention on Fed rate action contracts."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/fed-decisions-jun-sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "koreatimes.co.kr: Fed expected to leave rates unchanged next month after soft inflation",
      "url": "https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260813/fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-13T09:07:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026081203 published 2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-4cf307845cb… ← underlying event all signals →