Will Ron DeSantis win the FL-19 Republican Primary? [ resolved 2026-08-18 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Schwartzel | 2026-08-18 | 100.0% | — | $977 | C | 0xc16fad…4174 | ||
| Madison Cawthorn | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $1.4K | C | 0x1529ed…0fe1 | ||
| Bob Rommel | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $920 | C | 0xc6f227…d2be | ||
| Jim Oberweis | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $2.8K | C | 0x036154…3744 | ||
| Catalina Lauf | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $17K | C | 0xf43d99…7ae2 | ||
| Spencer Roach | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $702 | C | 0x84b394…26e7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Bob Rommel be the Republican nominee for FL-19? | polymarket | 2026-08-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19? | polymarket | 2026-08-27 | 0% |
| NO | Will Spencer Roach be the Republican nominee for FL-19? | polymarket | 2026-08-27 | 0% |
| YES | Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19? | polymarket | 2026-08-21 | 100% |
| NO | Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Lauf FL-19 GOP nomination priced in at 90% 90% · $15K 24h
- Polymarket prices Lauf at 90%, strong favorite but 10% residual uncertainty remains unresolved.
- 26% of all-time volume in 24h ($15K), contract's most active day, consistent with Florida primary day flow.
- Part of the broad Florida primary resolution wave across multiple congressional and statewide contracts.
- Resolves on certified Republican nominee for Florida's 19th congressional district.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fl-19-republican-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fl-19-republican-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fl-19-republican-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WPXJQDV350",
"slug": "fl-19-republican-primary-winner",
"question": "Will Ron DeSantis win the FL-19 Republican Primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"florida",
"republican-primary",
"us-congress"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24270,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}