Lauf FL-19 GOP nomination priced in at 90%

Name: Lauf FL-19 GOP nomination priced in at 90%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-18T08:31:22+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

90% · $15K 24h

record: CMSIG20260818VS06 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-WPXJQDV350 | published: 2026-08-18

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices Lauf at 90%, strong favorite but 10% residual uncertainty remains unresolved.
26% of all-time volume in 24h ($15K), contract's most active day, consistent with Florida primary day flow.
Part of the broad Florida primary resolution wave across multiple congressional and statewide contracts.
Resolves on certified Republican nominee for Florida's 19th congressional district.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $15.1K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/fl-19-republican-primary-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xf43d99c0b796e0e5226dffa31c71c9fab943e3f79c0182c144eea93dc6b77ae2

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-catalina-lauf-be-the-republican-nom-vol-15122/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-catalina-lauf-be-the-republican-nom-vol-15122.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-catalina-lauf-be-the-republican-nom-vol-15122")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260818VS06",
  "published_at": "2026-08-18T08:31:22+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WPXJQDV350",
  "target_event_slug": "fl-19-republican-primary-winner",
  "event_question": "Will Ron DeSantis win the FL-19 Republican Primary?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Lauf at 90%, strong favorite but 10% residual uncertainty remains unresolved.",
    "26% of all-time volume in 24h ($15K), contract's most active day, consistent with Florida primary day flow.",
    "Part of the broad Florida primary resolution wave across multiple congressional and statewide contracts.",
    "Resolves on certified Republican nominee for Florida's 19th congressional district."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 15122.697801
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/fl-19-republican-primary-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Ron DeSantis win the FL-19 Republican Primary?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fl-19-republican-primary-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:31:22+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260818VS06 published 2026-08-18T08:31:22+00:00 signature sha256-40361654a04… ← underlying event all signals →