Will the GA-11 House election be won by a Republican candidate in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11 – 2026-11 ]
Will the Republican Party win the GA-11 House seat?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5d8070…fc88 | ||
| Will A win the GA-11 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfaf549…1557 | ||
| Will B win the GA-11 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4b7e80…54d8 | ||
| Will C win the GA-11 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe9608e…392c | ||
| Will D win the GA-11 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x52b251…2484 | ||
| Will E win the GA-11 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x50f388…1231 | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-04 | 100.0% | — | $19K | B | 0x707dd8…b8b2 | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | $6.5K | B | 0xc04a81…e280 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Republican Party win the GA-11 House seat? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
| NO | Will the Democratic Party win the GA-11 House seat? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Odds hold Democrats out of GA-11 at 1% on fresh volume 1% · $17K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 1% in GA-11, market treats this as a safe Republican seat.
- $16.6K in 24h is 49% of all-time flow, nearly half the contract's history in a single session.
- GA-11 is a reliably red suburban-rural district; volume at minimal odds fits a sweep-scenario hedge pattern.
- Resolves on November 2026 House election result.
- GA-11 Democratic chances stay near zero despite fresh bets 2% · $16K 24h
- Polymarket holds Democratic win probability at 2% in GA-11, a Republican-leaning Georgia district.
- 48% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours, pulling lifetime activity forward sharply.
- Paired spike with NY-23 suggests systematic down-ballot Republican-seat positioning rather than district-specific news.
- Resolves on the GA-11 general election outcome.
- Republican lock on GA-11 holds through a volume surge at 95% 95% · $11K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Republican win in Georgia's 11th district at 95%, near-certain, with minimal residual risk priced in.
- 24h volume of $10.8K is 35% of all-time flow, a significant single-session share for a safe-seat contract.
- GA-11 is a heavily Republican district; unusual volume at this late stage may reflect either late arbitrage or an attempt to test whether any opposing scenario is being priced.
- Resolves on the certified winner of the GA-11 general election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ga-11-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ga-11-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ga-11-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Q69VMQDDC9",
"slug": "ga-11-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the GA-11 House election be won by a Republican candidate in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"georgia",
"2026",
"midterms"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 25481,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}