Republican lock on GA-11 holds through a volume surge at 95%

Name: Republican lock on GA-11 holds through a volume surge at 95%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-05T11:35:07+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

95% · $11K 24h

record: CMSIG20260905VS03 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-Q69VMQDDC9 | published: 2026-09-05

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices a Republican win in Georgia's 11th district at 95%, near-certain, with minimal residual risk priced in.
24h volume of $10.8K is 35% of all-time flow, a significant single-session share for a safe-seat contract.
GA-11 is a heavily Republican district; unusual volume at this late stage may reflect either late arbitrage or an attempt to test whether any opposing scenario is being priced.
Resolves on the certified winner of the GA-11 general election.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $10.8K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/ga-11-house-election-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x707dd8bd283b72a13ec9cf79b18b6238744a9250a8e5e18d9cab9dbbe55db8b2

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-win-the-ga-11-vol-10779/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-win-the-ga-11-vol-10779.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-the-republican-party-win-the-ga-11-vol-10779")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260905VS03",
  "published_at": "2026-09-05T11:35:07+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-Q69VMQDDC9",
  "target_event_slug": "ga-11-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the GA-11 House election be won by a Republican candidate in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Republican win in Georgia's 11th district at 95%, near-certain, with minimal residual risk priced in.",
    "24h volume of $10.8K is 35% of all-time flow, a significant single-session share for a safe-seat contract.",
    "GA-11 is a heavily Republican district; unusual volume at this late stage may reflect either late arbitrage or an attempt to test whether any opposing scenario is being priced.",
    "Resolves on the certified winner of the GA-11 general election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 10779.97262
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/ga-11-house-election-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the GA-11 House election be won by a Republican ca",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ga-11-house-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-05T11:35:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260905VS03 published 2026-09-05T11:35:07+00:00 signature sha256-08068a814c5… ← underlying event all signals →