Will the Georgia Senate election be won by the Republican candidate? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | — | 91.0% | $14 | $38K | A | 0x3c5b93…06a2 | ||
| The Republicans | — | 6.1% | $2.6K | $57K | A | 0x54e4e8…a1bd | ||
| Person A | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x37652e…975c | ||
| Person B | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf1faa2…81cd | ||
| Person C | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x81aa85…9519 | ||
| Person D | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbb2f6e…3a40 | ||
| Person E | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x320173…f014 | ||
| Person F | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe41a3b…50cb | ||
| Person G | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1dbb26…3c97 | ||
| Person H | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x811c3b…f912 | ||
| Person I | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3ceb8c…01ef | ||
| Person J | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe4024a…bbe3 | ||
| A candidate not listed above | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe2ce97…9e4c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Georgia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
recent wire items
- Republican odds in Georgia Senate race stay near long-shot territory Polymarket 7%
- Polymarket puts only 7% on the Republican candidate winning the Georgia Senate election, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Focus group data showing economic anxiety among Georgia undecided voters aligns with the market's strong lean toward the Democratic candidate.
- A Kalshi contract at 92% prices the Georgia Senate race being decided by January 4, 2027, suggesting high confidence in a clean outcome timeline even if the seat itself is lopsided.
- The Ohio Senate Kalshi contract sits at 48%, nearly even, highlighting Georgia as an outlier, the economic anxiety story may matter far more in competitive races.
- Georgia Senate Republican win remains a heavy long shot Polymarket 7%
- The Polymarket contract on the Republican candidate winning the Georgia Senate election sits at 7%.
- Focus group data showing voter anxiety about costs and the economy is consistent with the market's heavy lean against the Republican in Georgia.
- The Kalshi contract on the Georgia race being decided by January 4, 2027 sits at 92%, so the market expects a result, just not a Republican one.
- Resolution via UMA oracle for the winner market; the 92% resolution-timing contract resolves via United States Congress certification.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/georgia-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/georgia-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("georgia-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-301LWVGPR3",
"slug": "georgia-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Georgia Senate election be won by the Republican candidate?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"georgia-senate",
"us-elections",
"2026-elections",
"senate-races"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 94471,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}