Republican odds in Georgia Senate race stay near long-shot territory

Name: Republican odds in Georgia Senate race stay near long-shot territory
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 7%

record: CMSIG2026082005 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-301LWVGPR3 | published: 2026-08-20

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts only 7% on the Republican candidate winning the Georgia Senate election, resolving via UMA oracle.
Focus group data showing economic anxiety among Georgia undecided voters aligns with the market's strong lean toward the Democratic candidate.
A Kalshi contract at 92% prices the Georgia Senate race being decided by January 4, 2027, suggesting high confidence in a clean outcome timeline even if the seat itself is lopsided.
The Ohio Senate Kalshi contract sits at 48%, nearly even, highlighting Georgia as an outlier, the economic anxiety story may matter far more in competitive races.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Focus groups in Iowa and Georgia show deep economic anxiety among undecided voters driving Senate race dynamics heading into the 2026 midterms.exa_search → nbcnews.com · as_of 2026-08-22T08:23:10+00:00
publisher: nbcnews.com
published_at: 2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/focus-groups-deep-anxiety-economy-drives-undecided-voters-two-key-sena-rcna593115

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 7% on a Republican Georgia Senate win represents a heavily one-sided pricing; the Kalshi timing contract at 92% adds confidence the race resolves on schedule.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/georgia-senate-election-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x54e4e816cc5868e2f933c6bbc597e3313bdad382be3ecf7eaa4d8fa5c3f1a1bd

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-wins-georgia-senate-polymarket-7-2026-08-20/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-wins-georgia-senate-polymarket-7-2026-08-20.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("gop-wins-georgia-senate-polymarket-7-2026-08-20")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082005",
  "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-301LWVGPR3",
  "target_event_slug": "georgia-senate-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Georgia Senate election be won by the Republican candidate?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 7% on the Republican candidate winning the Georgia Senate election, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Focus group data showing economic anxiety among Georgia undecided voters aligns with the market's strong lean toward the Democratic candidate.",
    "A Kalshi contract at 92% prices the Georgia Senate race being decided by January 4, 2027, suggesting high confidence in a clean outcome timeline even if the seat itself is lopsided.",
    "The Ohio Senate Kalshi contract sits at 48%, nearly even, highlighting Georgia as an outlier, the economic anxiety story may matter far more in competitive races."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nbcnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/focus-groups-deep-anxiety-economy-drives-undecided-voters-two-key-sena-rcna593115",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T08:23:10+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Focus groups in Iowa and Georgia show deep economic anxiety among undecided voters driving Senate race dynamics heading into the 2026 midterms.",
      "publisher": "nbcnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/focus-groups-deep-anxiety-economy-drives-undecided-voters-two-key-sena-rcna593115"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 7% on a Republican Georgia Senate win represents a heavily one-sided pricing; the Kalshi timing contract at 92% adds confidence the race resolves on schedule."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/georgia-senate-election-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nbcnews.com: Focus groups: Deep anxiety about the economy drives undecided voters i",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/focus-groups-deep-anxiety-economy-drives-undecided-voters-two-key-sena-rcna593115",
      "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T08:23:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026082005 published 2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-534e684712d… ← underlying event all signals →