Will the Republican Party win the Indiana 5th Congressional District House seat in the 2026 general election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 81.0% | — | $12K | B | 0x3b4e55…751e | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 16.0% | — | $12K | B | 0x98f22f…3d51 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbbe710…c53c | ||
| Will A win the IN-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5dd9a4…3ef6 | ||
| Will B win the IN-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5c0811…7279 | ||
| Will C win the IN-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x142cc4…21d7 | ||
| Will D win the IN-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0d9258…0c31 | ||
| Will E win the IN-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3264f7…47c7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- Democrats remain heavy underdogs in IN-05 House race 16% · $12K 24h
- 16% prices a Democratic win as a longshot, the contract implies an 84% Republican retention probability.
- 40% of all-time volume arriving in 24h is a meaningful concentration suggesting a specific catalyst or late polling.
- Fresh capital entering at 16% could reflect either speculative upside hunting or a hedged position against a surprise.
- Resolves on certified Indiana 5th congressional district House race outcome.
- Republicans put short odds on Indiana 5th District win Polymarket 15%
- Polymarket prices only 15% on the Republican Party winning the Indiana 5th Congressional District House seat.
- The news that Republicans are spending defensively in races once considered safe is consistent with this contract's pricing, IN-05 is already treated as a likely Democratic hold.
- Contrast with IN-08, which Polymarket prices at 94% Republican, illustrating how the market is sorting Indiana districts: some are genuinely competitive, others are not.
- Resolves via UMA oracle on the certified election result; if the race is contested or subject to a recount, settlement timing could slip past the standard November 3 election night.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/in-05-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/in-05-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("in-05-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2Y2596TYD9",
"slug": "in-05-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Republican Party win the Indiana 5th Congressional District House seat in the 2026 general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"indiana",
"house-races",
"2026",
"us-congress"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24245,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}