Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz by June 15? [ resolved 2026-06-15 ]
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15 | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $159 | $17K | C | 0x27a7a6…b928 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the governments of Iran and Oman from rules text · editorial
- an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Iran-Oman Hormuz deal by June 15 priced near-impossible Polymarket 6%
- Polymarket prices only 6% on an Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15.
- Escalating strikes near Hormuz are consistent with the very low near-term deal probability on Polymarket.
- A companion Polymarket contract prices 13% on unrestricted Iran shipping through Hormuz by June 30, confirming the market sees no quick resolution.
- Resolves via uma_oracle based on confirmed public agreement between Iran and Oman by June 15.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-974T1626Q2",
"slug": "iran-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15",
"question": "Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz by June 15?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"iran-oman",
"maritime-agreement",
"2026",
"bilateral-diplomacy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16848,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the governments of Iran and Oman",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}