Iran-Oman Hormuz deal by June 15 priced near-impossible
Polymarket 6%
record: CMSIG2026060305 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-974T1626Q2 | published: 2026-06-03
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Polymarket prices only 6% on an Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15.
- Escalating strikes near Hormuz are consistent with the very low near-term deal probability on Polymarket.
- A companion Polymarket contract prices 13% on unrestricted Iran shipping through Hormuz by June 30, confirming the market sees no quick resolution.
- Resolves via uma_oracle based on confirmed public agreement between Iran and Oman by June 15.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market
- story
- Iran struck Kuwait and the US conducted strikes near the Strait of Hormuz as Middle East conflict intensified.exa_search → thenews.pk · as_of 2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- thenews.pk
- published_at
- 2026-06-03T19:00:00.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; the June 15 deadline makes this an extremely short-dated binary.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
external
- venue_a
- polymarket · 0x27a7a60a3605b0cc0f41f0f243e6be5f2a6144b0adf59fad803fbc1ca6eeb928
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-oman-hormuz-deal-by-june-15-polymarket-6-2026-06-03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-oman-hormuz-deal-by-june-15-polymarket-6-2026-06-03.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("iran-oman-hormuz-deal-by-june-15-polymarket-6-2026-06-03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026060305",
"published_at": "2026-06-03T19:00:00.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-974T1626Q2",
"target_event_slug": "iran-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15",
"event_question": "Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz by June 15?",
"bullets": [
"Polymarket prices only 6% on an Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15.",
"Escalating strikes near Hormuz are consistent with the very low near-term deal probability on Polymarket.",
"A companion Polymarket contract prices 13% on unrestricted Iran shipping through Hormuz by June 30, confirming the market sees no quick resolution.",
"Resolves via uma_oracle based on confirmed public agreement between Iran and Oman by June 15."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "thenews.pk",
"source_url": "https://www.thenews.pk/print/1418823-me-conflict-surges-as-iran-hits-kuwait-us-strikes-near-hormuz",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
},
"story": "Iran struck Kuwait and the US conducted strikes near the Strait of Hormuz as Middle East conflict intensified.",
"publisher": "thenews.pk",
"published_at": "2026-06-03T19:00:00.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.thenews.pk/print/1418823-me-conflict-surges-as-iran-hits-kuwait-us-strikes-near-hormuz"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; the June 15 deadline makes this an extremely short-dated binary."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/iran-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": null,
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "thenews.pk: ME conflict surges as Iran hits Kuwait, US strikes near Hormuz",
"url": "https://www.thenews.pk/print/1418823-me-conflict-surges-as-iran-hits-kuwait-us-strikes-near-hormuz",
"published_at": "2026-06-03T19:00:00.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "polymarket_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1