Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
| YES | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | polymarket | 2026-06-07 | 100% |
| NO | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? | polymarket | 2026-05-31 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Lebanon ceasefire extension announcement wavers at low odds Polymarket 20%
- Polymarket prices 20% odds Israel formally announces a Lebanon ceasefire extension in 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Hezbollah's rejection of the deal is consistent with the low probability: the plan requires Hezbollah compliance but the group holds veto power in practice.
- A companion Polymarket contract on Israeli forces entering Nabatieh by June 7 sits at 19% (CM-EVT-19YC0MGZP4), suggesting markets see continued military operations as slightly more likely than a ceasefire deal near-term.
- Israel-Lebanon normalization before 2027 sits at just 25% on Polymarket (CM-EVT-5TKXRL9KJ8), reflecting the same structural skepticism about durable resolution.
- Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7 a long shot Polymarket 20%
- Polymarket prices 20% on Israel announcing a Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7.
- A ceasefire renewal has been announced but Israel simultaneously declared continued operations in south Lebanon, creating ambiguity over whether the contract resolves yes.
- A companion Polymarket contract at 98% on an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by June 7 confirms talks are priced as near-certain; the extension itself remains uncertain.
- Resolves via uma_oracle; whether Israel's conditional ceasefire qualifies as a formal extension is the key settlement question.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KFM6RVW5P7",
"slug": "israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by",
"question": "Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"israel-lebanon",
"ceasefire-extension",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 339382,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}