Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7 a long shot

Name: Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7 a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-04T06:47:34.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 20%

record: CMSIG2026060406 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-KFM6RVW5P7 | published: 2026-06-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices 20% on Israel announcing a Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7.
A ceasefire renewal has been announced but Israel simultaneously declared continued operations in south Lebanon, creating ambiguity over whether the contract resolves yes.
A companion Polymarket contract at 98% on an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by June 7 confirms talks are priced as near-certain; the extension itself remains uncertain.
Resolves via uma_oracle; whether Israel's conditional ceasefire qualifies as a formal extension is the key settlement question.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Israel and Lebanon agreed to renew a ceasefire banning Hezbollah from pilot security zones in a US-brokered deal.exa_search → Press Association · as_of 2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00
publisher: Press Association
published_at: 2026-06-04T06:47:34.000Z
source_url: https://www.thejournal.ie/israel-and-lebanon-agree-to-renew-ceasefire-7059979-Jun2026/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle; the gap between 98% for a meeting and 20% for a ceasefire extension captures the market's doubt about durability.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x42973552f8bcfc9269fba8492766f2c20a22243cbba154cf695acaff88ec96c7

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by-june-7-polymarket-20-2026-06-04/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by-june-7-polymarket-20-2026-06-04.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("israel-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by-june-7-polymarket-20-2026-06-04")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060406",
  "published_at": "2026-06-04T06:47:34.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KFM6RVW5P7",
  "target_event_slug": "israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by",
  "event_question": "Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 20% on Israel announcing a Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7.",
    "A ceasefire renewal has been announced but Israel simultaneously declared continued operations in south Lebanon, creating ambiguity over whether the contract resolves yes.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract at 98% on an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by June 7 confirms talks are priced as near-certain; the extension itself remains uncertain.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle; whether Israel's conditional ceasefire qualifies as a formal extension is the key settlement question."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Press Association",
          "source_url": "https://www.thejournal.ie/israel-and-lebanon-agree-to-renew-ceasefire-7059979-Jun2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Israel and Lebanon agreed to renew a ceasefire banning Hezbollah from pilot security zones in a US-brokered deal.",
      "publisher": "Press Association",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T06:47:34.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thejournal.ie/israel-and-lebanon-agree-to-renew-ceasefire-7059979-Jun2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle; the gap between 98% for a meeting and 20% for a ceasefire extension captures the market's doubt about durability."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Press Association: Israel and Lebanon agree to renew ceasefire, with Hezbollah banned fro",
      "url": "https://www.thejournal.ie/israel-and-lebanon-agree-to-renew-ceasefire-7059979-Jun2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T06:47:34.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026060406 published 2026-06-04T06:47:34.000Z signature sha256-7a034ef9b6a… ← underlying event all signals →