Will the core Consumer Price Index year-over-year change in June 2026 be below 3%? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-07 ]
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in June 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.6% | 2026-07-14 | 0.0% | — | $147 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.6 | ||
| ≥ 2.8% | 2026-07-14 | 0.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.8 | ||
| ≥ 2.1% | 2026-07-21 | 99.0% | — | $129 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.1 | ||
| ≥ 2.2% | 2026-07-21 | 99.0% | — | $133 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.2 | ||
| ≥ 2.3% | 2026-07-21 | 60.0% | — | $313 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.3 | ||
| ≥ 2.4% | 2026-07-21 | 99.0% | — | $2.1K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.4 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2026-07-21 | 99.0% | — | $371 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.5 | ||
| ≥ 2.7% | 2026-07-21 | 99.0% | — | $247 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.7 | ||
| ≥ 2.9% | 2026-07-21 | 2.0% | — | $63 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.9 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-07-21 | 7.0% | — | $200 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.0 | ||
| ≥ 3.1% | 2026-07-21 | 21.0% | $16 | $572 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.1 | ||
| ≥ 3.2% | 2026-07-21 | 21.0% | — | $872 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.2 | ||
| ≥ 3.3% | 2026-07-21 | 70.0% | — | $1.5K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.3 | ||
| ≥ 3.4% | 2026-07-21 | 33.0% | — | $488 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.4 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-07-21 | 4.0% | — | $66 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in June 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in June 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-14 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Core CPI pricing anchors near 2.7-2.8 percent ahead of hot print Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices core CPI for the year ending June 2026 in the 2.7-2.8% range: 85% above 2.7% but only 33% above 2.8%, a tight distribution around a modest level.
- The 4.2% headline CPI print through May reflects tariff and energy pass-through; the market's core reading of roughly 2.75% suggests tariff effects are seen as transitory in core.
- The gap between a 4.2% headline and a sub-3% core implied by this ladder is the crux of the Fed policy debate, and the market is not pricing a core breakout.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release; any core print at or above 2.9% would sharply compress the current 3% tail, now priced at just 3%.
- Core CPI above 2.6% for June year, near-certain settlement 99% · $14K 24h
- Kalshi prices core CPI above 2.6% for the year ending June 2026 at 99%, effectively a settlement trade.
- $14K in 24h is 33% of a $44K all-time pool, consistent with arbitrage-driven late-stage compression.
- June CPI print is imminent or already released, triggering resolution-window position cleanup.
- At 99%, any remaining 1% discount represents friction cost, not genuine inflation uncertainty.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpicoreyoy-26jun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpicoreyoy-26jun |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpicoreyoy-26jun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-B5KCGZG8C0",
"slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26jun",
"question": "Will the core Consumer Price Index year-over-year change in June 2026 be below 3%?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"core-inflation",
"cpi-metric",
"us-economic-data",
"2026",
"monetary-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9192,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}