Core CPI pricing anchors near 2.7-2.8 percent ahead of hot print

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071302",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T02:15:46.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-B5KCGZG8C0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26jun",
  "event_question": "Core CPI year-over-year rate, year ending June 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices core CPI for the year ending June 2026 in the 2.7-2.8% range: 85% above 2.7% but only 33% above 2.8%, a tight distribution around a modest level.",
    "The 4.2% headline CPI print through May reflects tariff and energy pass-through; the market's core reading of roughly 2.75% suggests tariff effects are seen as transitory in core.",
    "The gap between a 4.2% headline and a sub-3% core implied by this ladder is the crux of the Fed policy debate, and the market is not pricing a core breakout.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release; any core print at or above 2.9% would sharply compress the current 3% tail, now priced at just 3%."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Warren Cohen",
          "source_url": "https://thefinancialwire.com/the-may-inflation-reading-hit-4-2-the-hottest-in-three-years-and-a-july-14-report-could-sway-the-fed/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Headline CPI hit 4.2% year-over-year through May 2026, the hottest in three years, with the June CPI report releasing today seen as a potential catalyst for a Fed rate hike.",
      "publisher": "Warren Cohen",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T02:15:46.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thefinancialwire.com/the-may-inflation-reading-hit-4-2-the-hottest-in-three-years-and-a-july-14-report-could-sway-the-fed/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's core CPI ladder is concentrated well below the 4.2% headline, reflecting a market read that strips out tariff-driven components."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpicoreyoy-26jun/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.8",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Warren Cohen: The May inflation reading hit 4.2%, the hottest in three years, and a",
      "url": "https://thefinancialwire.com/the-may-inflation-reading-hit-4-2-the-hottest-in-three-years-and-a-july-14-report-could-sway-the-fed/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T02:15:46.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}