Will Democrats sweep the core four Senate races by 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-10 (98D) ]
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North… | 2026-11-10 | 54.0% | $81 | $46K | A | KXDEMCOREFOU…V03 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bloomberg | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Democrats win the 2026 Senate elections in ALL of the following states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market requires ALL specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. If even one loses, the entire market resolves to No. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. For referenda, the specified option must achieve the required threshold. For indirect elections, the ultimate officeholder matters, not intermediate selectors. Postponed elections remain open until rescheduled or two years from original date. Annulled elections remain open until re-run. Death after election but before taking office still counts as a win. In case of ties, the winner through the jurisdiction's tiebreak mechanism prevails.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bloomberg" sources (5) · single authority
Bloomberg venue-listed the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division venue-listed the official election authority conducting election committed source Reuters venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed
recent wire items
- Democrats sweeping four core Senate races sits near 50% Kalshi 55%
- Kalshi prices a 55% chance Democrats sweep the four core Senate races, resolves via Bloomberg.
- Canada trade war escalation in border-state Senate battlegrounds is consistent with the market tilting just above 50% toward a Democratic sweep.
- The broader House majority market (CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63) at 84% on Kalshi shows higher Democratic confidence in the House than in the Senate sweep.
- Resolves via Bloomberg's official call of the four designated Senate race outcomes after the November 2026 elections.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QH62PP4D92",
"slug": "kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03",
"question": "Will Democrats sweep the core four Senate races by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"2026-us-elections",
"senate-races",
"democrats",
"sweep-condition",
"swing-states"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 46368,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bloomberg",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the official election authority conducting election",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division",
"url": "https://dppa.un.org/en/electoral-assistance-division",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the official election authority conducting election",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}