Will Democrats sweep the core four Senate races by 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-10 (98D) ]

Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?

kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North…	2026-11-10	54.0%		$81	$46K		A	`KXDEMCOREFOU…V03`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Bloomberg	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If Democrats win the 2026 Senate elections in ALL of the following states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine, then the market resolves to Yes. This market requires ALL specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. If even one loses, the entire market resolves to No. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. For referenda, the specified option must achieve the required threshold. For indirect elections, the ultimate officeholder matters, not intermediate selectors. Postponed elections remain open until rescheduled or two years from original date. Annulled elections remain open until re-run. Death after election but before taking office still counts as a win. In case of ties, the winner through the jurisdiction's tiebreak mechanism prevails. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bloomberg"

sources (5) · single authority

Bloomberg venue-listed the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division venue-listed the official election authority conducting election committed source Reuters venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed

recent wire items

2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
Democrats sweep four core Senate races holds near 50 percent Kalshi 53%
- Kalshi puts 53% on Democrats sweeping all four core Senate races, nearly a coin-flip heading into the debate cycle.
- The Maine race between Collins and Jackson is a linchpin; a Collins loss is required for a Democratic sweep.
- Polymarket (CM-EVT-P54SDG6NP7) puts 49% on Democrats winning all four core races, nearly matching Kalshi and confirming the near-even split across venues.
- Resolves via Bloomberg's official call of all four race outcomes after Election Day.
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
Democrat Senate sweep sits near 50 percent on Kalshi Kalshi 51%
- The Kalshi contract on Democrats sweeping the four core Senate races sits at 51%, essentially a coin flip.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-P54SDG6NP7) prices the same outcome at 49%, producing near-perfect cross-venue agreement and no exploitable gap.
- The near-50% pricing on both venues is consistent with new polling showing Democratic gains in Republican-leaning districts, neither side is favored.
- Resolves via Bloomberg per the Kalshi contract terms; individual race calls will drive settlement.
2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
Democrats sweeping four core Senate races climbs near 62% Kalshi 62%
- Kalshi prices a 62% chance Democrats sweep the four core Senate races by 2026, with trading volume up 9,219% day over day, a 93x surge indicating heavy fresh positioning.
- Senate Republicans blocking the Iran war powers resolution, combined with rising gas prices, appears to be driving fresh Democratic-sweep bets on Kalshi.
- The companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) at 61% for Republicans holding at least one chamber shows the two markets nearly mirroring each other, a statistical tension worth monitoring as they cannot both resolve favorably.
- Resolves via Bloomberg as the named resolution source; the sweep definition requires Democrats to win all four named contests.
2026-08-25T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
Democrats sweeping four core Senate races sits near 50% Kalshi 55%
- Kalshi prices a 55% chance Democrats sweep the four core Senate races, resolves via Bloomberg.
- Canada trade war escalation in border-state Senate battlegrounds is consistent with the market tilting just above 50% toward a Democratic sweep.
- The broader House majority market (CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63) at 84% on Kalshi shows higher Democratic confidence in the House than in the Senate sweep.
- Resolves via Bloomberg's official call of the four designated Senate race outcomes after the November 2026 elections.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QH62PP4D92",
  "slug": "kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03",
  "question": "Will Democrats sweep the core four Senate races by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "2026-us-elections",
    "senate-races",
    "democrats",
    "sweep-condition",
    "swing-states"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 46368,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 91,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bloomberg",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "the official election authority conducting election",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division",
      "url": "https://dppa.un.org/en/electoral-assistance-division",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the official election authority conducting election",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →