Democrats sweep four core Senate races holds near 50 percent
Kalshi 53%
record: CMSIG2026100704 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-QH62PP4D92 | published: 2026-10-07
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi puts 53% on Democrats sweeping all four core Senate races, nearly a coin-flip heading into the debate cycle.
- The Maine race between Collins and Jackson is a linchpin; a Collins loss is required for a Democratic sweep.
- Polymarket (CM-EVT-P54SDG6NP7) puts 49% on Democrats winning all four core races, nearly matching Kalshi and confirming the near-even split across venues.
- Resolves via Bloomberg's official call of all four race outcomes after Election Day.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- Susan Collins and challenger Troy Jackson clashed in Maine's first Senate debate over Trump alignment and seniority in a key battleground race.exa_search → nbcnews.com · as_of 2026-10-07T07:47:51+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- nbcnews.com
- published_at
- 2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi at 53% and Polymarket at 49% are tightly aligned, with no material cross-venue gap.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-sweep-core-four-senate-races-kalshi-53-2026-10-07/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-sweep-core-four-senate-races-kalshi-53-2026-10-07.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("dems-sweep-core-four-senate-races-kalshi-53-2026-10-07") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026100704",
"published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QH62PP4D92",
"target_event_slug": "kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03",
"event_question": "Will Democrats sweep the core four Senate races by 2026?",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi puts 53% on Democrats sweeping all four core Senate races, nearly a coin-flip heading into the debate cycle.",
"The Maine race between Collins and Jackson is a linchpin; a Collins loss is required for a Democratic sweep.",
"Polymarket (CM-EVT-P54SDG6NP7) puts 49% on Democrats winning all four core races, nearly matching Kalshi and confirming the near-even split across venues.",
"Resolves via Bloomberg's official call of all four race outcomes after Election Day."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "nbcnews.com",
"source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/susan-collins-troy-jackson-clash-trump-seniority-maines-first-senate-d-rcna601346",
"retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T07:47:51+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "Susan Collins and challenger Troy Jackson clashed in Maine's first Senate debate over Trump alignment and seniority in a key battleground race.",
"publisher": "nbcnews.com",
"published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/susan-collins-troy-jackson-clash-trump-seniority-maines-first-senate-d-rcna601346"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi at 53% and Polymarket at 49% are tightly aligned, with no material cross-venue gap."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDEMCOREFOURSENATESWEEP-26NOV03",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "nbcnews.com: Susan Collins and Troy Jackson clash over Trump and seniority in Maine",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/susan-collins-troy-jackson-clash-trump-seniority-maines-first-senate-d-rcna601346",
"published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T07:47:51+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1