Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary? [ resolves 2028-04-08 (613D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
A contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic National Committee sanctions, recognizes, or gives delegate effect to it. If multiple states vote on the same day, the market will resolve to 1 / N where N is the number of tied states.
Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (22)
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Guardian venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- South China Morning Post venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Verge venue-listed
- BBC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- ABC News Australia venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- CBC venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdemfirstcontest-28/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdemfirstcontest-28 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxdemfirstcontest-28") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-71JN7R5VC6",
"slug": "kxdemfirstcontest-28",
"question": "Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"2028-democratic-primary",
"early-voting-state",
"us-presidential-politics",
"state-selection",
"primary-calendar"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15694,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "South China Morning Post",
"url": "https://www.scmp.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Verge",
"url": "https://www.theverge.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News Australia",
"url": "http://www.abc.net.au/news/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBC",
"url": "https://www.cbc.ca/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}