Which state votes first in 2028 Democratic primary stays near 50%

Name: Which state votes first in 2028 Democratic primary stays near 50%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-15T22:22:09.496Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 56%

record: CMSIG2026081507 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-71JN7R5VC6 | published: 2026-08-15

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices the question of which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary at 56% for the leading option, resolved via The Washington Post.
The DNC's formal calendar approval is a direct catalyst for this contract, though the 56% price indicates the market is not treating the outcome as a certainty.
At 56%, roughly four-in-ten probability remains on an alternative first-voting state, suggesting market participants see room for further procedural challenge or court intervention.
Resolves via The Washington Post's coverage of the certified 2028 Democratic primary calendar order.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Democrats approved a shakeup to the 2028 presidential primary calendar at a DNC meeting in Austin, reshuffling state ordering.exa_search → Evan Semones · as_of 2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00
publisher: Evan Semones
published_at: 2026-08-15T22:22:09.496Z
source_url: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/15/us-democrats-finalise-major-shakeup-to-2028-presidential-primary-calendar

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi's 56% on the 2028 Democratic primary first-state question reflects residual uncertainty even after the DNC's formal calendar vote, with The Washington Post as the named resolution source.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxdemfirstcontest-28/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDEMFIRSTCONTEST-28-NH

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2028-dem-primary-first-state-kalshi-56-2026-08-15/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2028-dem-primary-first-state-kalshi-56-2026-08-15.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("2028-dem-primary-first-state-kalshi-56-2026-08-15")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081507",
  "published_at": "2026-08-15T22:22:09.496Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-71JN7R5VC6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxdemfirstcontest-28",
  "event_question": "Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the question of which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary at 56% for the leading option, resolved via The Washington Post.",
    "The DNC's formal calendar approval is a direct catalyst for this contract, though the 56% price indicates the market is not treating the outcome as a certainty.",
    "At 56%, roughly four-in-ten probability remains on an alternative first-voting state, suggesting market participants see room for further procedural challenge or court intervention.",
    "Resolves via The Washington Post's coverage of the certified 2028 Democratic primary calendar order."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Evan Semones",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/15/us-democrats-finalise-major-shakeup-to-2028-presidential-primary-calendar",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats approved a shakeup to the 2028 presidential primary calendar at a DNC meeting in Austin, reshuffling state ordering.",
      "publisher": "Evan Semones",
      "published_at": "2026-08-15T22:22:09.496Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/15/us-democrats-finalise-major-shakeup-to-2028-presidential-primary-calendar"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 56% on the 2028 Democratic primary first-state question reflects residual uncertainty even after the DNC's formal calendar vote, with The Washington Post as the named resolution source."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxdemfirstcontest-28/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDEMFIRSTCONTEST-28-NH",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Evan Semones: US Democrats finalise major shakeup to 2028 presidential primary calen",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/15/us-democrats-finalise-major-shakeup-to-2028-presidential-primary-calendar",
      "published_at": "2026-08-15T22:22:09.496Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026081507 published 2026-08-15T22:22:09.496Z signature sha256-9ac26b73990… ← underlying event all signals →