Federal funds rate upper bound, July 2026 meeting [ resolved 2026-07-29 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-07-29 | 100.0% | $1 | $126K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-07-29 | 100.0% | — | $70K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-07-29 | 100.0% | — | $94K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-07-29 | 100.0% | $47K | $841K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | $9.3K | $286K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | $1.7K | $7.2K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | $12 | $1.1K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | — | $98 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | $0 | $29 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | — | $28 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | — | $24 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jul 29, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Federal Reserve Board of Governors committed source Federal Reserve's official website from rules text Federal Reserve from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 100% |
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 100% |
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 100% |
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 100% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (11 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Fed pause firmly priced in at 3.5 to 3.75 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the July 2026 Fed funds upper bound firmly in the 3.50-3.75% range: 99% above 3.50%, only 22% above 3.75%.
- Consensus pricing is fully consistent with the 'hold' headline, the market had already priced out any July hike.
- The 22% probability above 3.75% reflects residual uncertainty about a surprise hike, not a cut, the lower tail is negligible.
- The Polymarket contract on the Fed raising rates at all in 2026 sits at 71%, suggesting longer-horizon hike risk remains on the table even as July is settled.
- Traders push back on the fed funds rate staying above 3.75% 15% · $44K 24h
- Kalshi puts the odds of the upper bound remaining above 3.75% at just 15%, cuts are the base case.
- 24h volume of $44K is 29% of all-time, the largest single-day print on this longer-horizon contract.
- Fresh activity ahead of the July FOMC meeting suggests traders are repricing the easing path lower.
- Resolves on the Fed's published upper-bound target following the relevant policy decision.
- Fed funds pinned near 3.5 to 3.75 percent through year-end Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi rate ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound firmly in the 3.50-3.75% range: 99% above 3.50% but only 15% above 3.75%.
- Reuters economist consensus for a hold is consistent with this tight market-implied band, with hike risk barely registering in the distribution.
- The separate Kalshi contract pricing only 9% on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year confirms the market sees the Fed pinned, not easing.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcements; the 3.75% strike is the live tail to watch.
- Rate hike consensus wavers despite fresh Fed inflation warnings Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices only 7% odds the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound exceeds 3.75%, despite the Fed's hawkish framing.
- The market is at odds with the hawkish posture: officials warn of persistent inflation, yet the pricing implies near-certain hold at 3.50-3.75%.
- Import prices surging 7.1% year-over-year in June add a concrete upside risk the 7% above-3.75% tail may be underpricing.
- Companion binary CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50 on the June meeting upper bound carries no price data; the ladder is the only live signal available.
- Fed funds rate holds firm below 3.75 percent after June Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound solidly in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50%, but only 6% above 3.75%.
- Headline CPI drop to 3.5% is consistent with no hike, but Warsh's 'not declaring victory' language equally supports no cut, market is squarely in hold territory.
- Core prices barely budged despite headline relief, reinforcing the market's sharp rejection of any move above 3.75%.
- Resolves via the Fed's official post-meeting rate announcement for the June 2026 FOMC meeting.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
"slug": "kxfed-26jul",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, July 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"us-interest-rates",
"federal-reserve",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1426275,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}