Federal funds rate upper bound, July 2026 meeting [ resolves 2026-08-05 (30D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-08-05 | 98.0% | — | $660 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-08-05 | 99.0% | $4 | $5.6K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-08-05 | 98.0% | — | $15K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-08-05 | 90.0% | $59 | $16K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-08-05 | 13.0% | $9 | $2.0K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-08-05 | 5.0% | — | $200 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-08-05 | 3.0% | — | $12 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-08-05 | 2.0% | — | $50 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-08-05 | 2.0% | — | $4 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-08-05 | 2.0% | — | $2 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-08-05 | 2.0% | — | $26 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jul 29, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve's official website from rules text · editorial
- Federal Reserve from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Rate hike consensus wavers despite fresh Fed inflation warnings Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices only 7% odds the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound exceeds 3.75%, despite the Fed's hawkish framing.
- The market is at odds with the hawkish posture: officials warn of persistent inflation, yet the pricing implies near-certain hold at 3.50-3.75%.
- Import prices surging 7.1% year-over-year in June add a concrete upside risk the 7% above-3.75% tail may be underpricing.
- Companion binary CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50 on the June meeting upper bound carries no price data; the ladder is the only live signal available.
- Fed funds rate holds firm below 3.75 percent after June Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound solidly in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50%, but only 6% above 3.75%.
- Headline CPI drop to 3.5% is consistent with no hike, but Warsh's 'not declaring victory' language equally supports no cut, market is squarely in hold territory.
- Core prices barely budged despite headline relief, reinforcing the market's sharp rejection of any move above 3.75%.
- Resolves via the Fed's official post-meeting rate announcement for the June 2026 FOMC meeting.
- Fed funds upper bound anchors in 3.50-3.75 percent range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50% but only 7% above 3.75%.
- June headline CPI at 3.5% is consistent with the market pricing a hold; the distribution shows virtually no chance of a cut pulling the upper bound below 3.50%.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's explicit inflation-watch posture aligns with the ladder's sharp drop above 3.75%, signaling the market sees no near-term hike either.
- Resolution via the named June 2026 FOMC meeting outcome; any emergency inter-meeting action would also settle the contract.
- Longer-horizon rate path nears full pricing at 3.5 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi's longer-horizon ladder shows 98% above 3.50% but only 4% above 3.75%, tightly pinning the expected upper bound at 3.50-3.75%.
- Soft headline retail sales driven by energy price drag did not shift this distribution; the market treats underlying consumer spending as supportive of a gradual, limited easing path.
- The near-certainty above 3.50% combined with the cliff at 3.75% reflects consensus that the Fed will cut but stop well above prior cycle lows.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision at the relevant FOMC meeting date specified in the contract.
- Rate above 3.75 percent nears full pricing as anchor below that level Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder shows 99% above 3.50% but only 21% above 3.75%, anchoring the consensus rate view firmly in the 3.50-3.75% range.
- The Fed report's 'stepped-up inflation' language is hawkish, but the market is not moving the upper bound probability above 3.75% into base-case territory.
- The 56% Kalshi reading on CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42 for the Fed raising rates at all in the 2026-2028 series is consistent with a market that prices hikes as possible but not certain.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official decision; 99% certainty at 3.50% reflects a floor well-established before this report's release.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
"slug": "kxfed-26jul",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, July 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"us-interest-rates",
"federal-reserve",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 39234,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}