Federal funds rate upper bound, July 2026 meeting [ resolves 2026-07-29 (56D) ]
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-07-29 | 98.0% | — | $640 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-07-29 | 98.0% | $416 | $4.3K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-07-29 | 97.0% | — | $11K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-07-29 | 95.0% | $153 | $16K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-07-29 | 14.0% | $14 | $2.0K | A | KXFED-26JUL-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-07-29 | 7.0% | $2 | $176 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-07-29 | 4.0% | $2 | $16 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-07-29 | 2.0% | — | $50 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-07-29 | 2.0% | — | $4 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-07-29 | 2.0% | — | $2 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-07-29 | 2.0% | — | $26 | A | KXFED-26JUL-T5.25 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26jul.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
"slug": "kxfed-26jul",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, July 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"us-interest-rates",
"federal-reserve",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 35021,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}