Fed funds rate holds firm below 3.75 percent after June

Name: Fed funds rate holds firm below 3.75 percent after June
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026071701 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 | published: 2026-07-17

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound solidly in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50%, but only 6% above 3.75%.
Headline CPI drop to 3.5% is consistent with no hike, but Warsh's 'not declaring victory' language equally supports no cut, market is squarely in hold territory.
Core prices barely budged despite headline relief, reinforcing the market's sharp rejection of any move above 3.75%.
Resolves via the Fed's official post-meeting rate announcement for the June 2026 FOMC meeting.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: June CPI cooled to 3.5% year-over-year on cheaper gasoline, but core prices barely moved and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned against declaring victory on inflation.exa_search → James Veale Published: Jul 17 2026, 11:37 AM EDT · as_of 2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00
publisher: James Veale Published: Jul 17 2026, 11:37 AM EDT
published_at: 2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.moneytimes.com/articles/60652/20260717/june-inflation-cooled-35-cheaper-gas-fed-says-relief-may-not-last.htm

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract prices the June upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% corridor with a very sharp cliff above 3.75%, consistent with market consensus for an extended hold.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26jul/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26JUL-T3.75

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-98-6-2026-07-17/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-98-6-2026-07-17.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-98-6-2026-07-17")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071701",
  "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26jul",
  "event_question": "June 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound solidly in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50%, but only 6% above 3.75%.",
    "Headline CPI drop to 3.5% is consistent with no hike, but Warsh's 'not declaring victory' language equally supports no cut, market is squarely in hold territory.",
    "Core prices barely budged despite headline relief, reinforcing the market's sharp rejection of any move above 3.75%.",
    "Resolves via the Fed's official post-meeting rate announcement for the June 2026 FOMC meeting."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "James Veale  \n\nPublished: Jul 17 2026, 11:37 AM EDT",
          "source_url": "https://www.moneytimes.com/articles/60652/20260717/june-inflation-cooled-35-cheaper-gas-fed-says-relief-may-not-last.htm",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "June CPI cooled to 3.5% year-over-year on cheaper gasoline, but core prices barely moved and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned against declaring victory on inflation.",
      "publisher": "James Veale  \n\nPublished: Jul 17 2026, 11:37 AM EDT",
      "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.moneytimes.com/articles/60652/20260717/june-inflation-cooled-35-cheaper-gas-fed-says-relief-may-not-last.htm"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract prices the June upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% corridor with a very sharp cliff above 3.75%, consistent with market consensus for an extended hold."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26jul/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26JUL-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "James Veale  \n\nPublished: Jul 17 2026, 11:37 AM EDT: June Inflation Cooled to 3.5% on Cheaper Gas, but the Fed Says the Rel",
      "url": "https://www.moneytimes.com/articles/60652/20260717/june-inflation-cooled-35-cheaper-gas-fed-says-relief-may-not-last.htm",
      "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071701 published 2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-ad6a7ce30c2… ← underlying event all signals →