Federal funds rate upper bound, October 2026 meeting [ resolves 2026-11-04 (92D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-11-04 | 98.0% | — | $1.9K | A | KXFED-26OCT-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-11-04 | 97.0% | — | $2.5K | A | KXFED-26OCT-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-11-04 | 97.0% | — | $4.2K | A | KXFED-26OCT-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-11-04 | 93.0% | — | $4.3K | A | KXFED-26OCT-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-11-04 | 62.0% | $1 | $1.8K | A | KXFED-26OCT-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-11-04 | 14.0% | $4 | $612 | A | KXFED-26OCT-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-11-04 | 5.0% | $0 | $48 | A | KXFED-26OCT-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-11-04 | 1.0% | — | $13 | A | KXFED-26OCT-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-11-04 | 1.0% | — | $16 | A | KXFED-26OCT-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-11-04 | 1.0% | — | $4 | A | KXFED-26OCT-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-11-04 | 1.0% | — | $15 | A | KXFED-26OCT-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Oct 28, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Federal Reserve Board of Governors committed source Federal Reserve's official website from rules text Federal Reserve statement from rules text
recent wire items
- Fed funds upper bound seen at 3.75-4.0% after next meeting Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices the federal funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range, with 99% probability above 3.75% but only 22% above 4.0%.
- Dollar hitting an 18-month high on rate-hike expectations is directionally consistent with the ladder, though the market stops well short of pricing 4.25% or higher.
- Trading volume on this contract rose 86.5x day-over-day, reflecting sharp new positioning following the September CPI print of 3.7%.
- The Kalshi contract on Fed cuts before 2027 (CM-EVT-X2TT2M9D02) sitting at 6% reinforces the ladder: no relief priced, but aggressive further hikes also not the base case.
- Fed funds upper bound near 3.75-4.0 percent, hike beyond heavily discounted Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the federal funds upper bound at 99% above 3.75% but only 29% above 4.0%, pinning the market-implied peak at 3.75-4.0%.
- Volume surged 86.5x day-over-day on this ladder, confirming the hot CPI print is driving direct repricing activity in rate markets.
- The sharp collapse from 99% at 3.75% to 29% at 4.0% shows the market sees a hike to 4.0%+ as unlikely despite hawkish news flow.
- The companion Kalshi contract on a Fed cut before 2027 (CM-EVT-X2TT2M9D02) sits at 3%, consistent with a hold-at-peak rather than hike-then-cut regime.
- Fed funds peak near 4 percent as October hike bets slip Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the federal funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 99% above 3.75%, only 18% above 4.0%.
- The weak 29K September payroll print aligns with this pricing, markets are consistent with an October hold, not a hike.
- Trading volume on this contract surged 84.5x day-over-day, signaling this ladder is drawing intense fresh attention post-NFP.
- A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) implies a slightly higher terminal of 4.0-4.25%, putting the inter-contract spread at roughly one quarter-point, the market's best guess at a December hike premium.
- October Fed hike stays a long shot near 4 percent ceiling Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder shows 99% above 3.75% but only 18% above 4.00%, implying the market sees the upper bound firmly at 4.00% after October.
- Jefferson and Williams remarks aligning with a pause are consistent with the ladder heavily resisting a move above 4.00%.
- The post-next-meeting ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) prices 78% above 4.00%, showing the market is open to one more move later but not in October.
- Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official post-October meeting rate announcement.
- Fed funds rate seen staying in 3.75 to 4.0 percent range Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder prices 99% above 3.75% but only 18% above 4.0%, placing the market-implied upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range.
- Jefferson's no-rush language is consistent with the ladder: the market sees 4.0% as a ceiling with only 18% odds of breaching it.
- The 29,000-job September print reinforces the pause case; the ladder's sharp drop above 4.0% reflects that data flow.
- A separate Kalshi contract on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year prices at just 4%, confirming the market sees a narrow hold corridor, not easing.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26oct/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26oct |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26oct") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
"slug": "kxfed-26oct",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, October 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"us-economy",
"interest-rates",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15524,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}