Rate path under Chair Warsh wavers near 3.5-3.75 percent

Name: Rate path under Chair Warsh wavers near 3.5-3.75 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-13T22:26:56.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026071303 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-6BS28TS762 | published: 2026-07-13

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices the relevant Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 91% above 3.50% but only 46% above 3.75%, with a notable 23% tail above 4.0%.
Warsh's House testimony comes as Waller's hike signal raised expectations; the 23% above-4.0% tail is elevated relative to the near-term Waller ladder's 8% tail.
The higher tail in this contract versus the Waller-linked ladder may reflect uncertainty about Chair Warsh's own policy leanings beyond the near term.
Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; the 94% above 2.75% floor confirms no market expectation of cuts under this scenario.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testified on monetary policy before the House, with markets closely watching his guidance on inflation and the rate path.exa_search → pbs.org · as_of 2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00
publisher: pbs.org
published_at: 2026-07-13T22:26:56.000Z
source_url: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-testifies-on-monetary-policy-in-house-hearing

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi's Warsh-horizon ladder carries a fatter upper tail than the Governor Waller near-term ladder, suggesting added uncertainty about the Chair's terminal guidance.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26oct/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26OCT-T3.75

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-under-warsh-kalshi-2026-07-13/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-under-warsh-kalshi-2026-07-13.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-under-warsh-kalshi-2026-07-13")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071303",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T22:26:56.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound under Chair Warsh horizon",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the relevant Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 91% above 3.50% but only 46% above 3.75%, with a notable 23% tail above 4.0%.",
    "Warsh's House testimony comes as Waller's hike signal raised expectations; the 23% above-4.0% tail is elevated relative to the near-term Waller ladder's 8% tail.",
    "The higher tail in this contract versus the Waller-linked ladder may reflect uncertainty about Chair Warsh's own policy leanings beyond the near term.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; the 94% above 2.75% floor confirms no market expectation of cuts under this scenario."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "pbs.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-testifies-on-monetary-policy-in-house-hearing",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testified on monetary policy before the House, with markets closely watching his guidance on inflation and the rate path.",
      "publisher": "pbs.org",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T22:26:56.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-testifies-on-monetary-policy-in-house-hearing"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's Warsh-horizon ladder carries a fatter upper tail than the Governor Waller near-term ladder, suggesting added uncertainty about the Chair's terminal guidance."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26oct/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26OCT-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "pbs.org: WATCH LIVE: Fed chair Kevin Warsh testifies on monetary policy in Hous",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-testifies-on-monetary-policy-in-house-hearing",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T22:26:56.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071303 published 2026-07-13T22:26:56.000Z signature sha256-157a8c33bb4… ← underlying event all signals →