Federal funds rate upper bound, September 2026 meeting [ resolves 2026-09-23 (79D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-09-23 | 94.0% | — | $3.2K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-09-23 | 97.0% | — | $3.4K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-09-23 | 97.0% | — | $4.8K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-09-23 | 95.0% | — | $12K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-09-23 | 36.0% | $4 | $2.3K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-09-23 | 16.0% | — | $476 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-09-23 | 8.0% | $1 | $208 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-09-23 | 6.0% | — | $133 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-09-23 | 2.0% | — | $15 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-09-23 | 3.0% | — | $8 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-09-23 | 3.0% | — | $8 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve's official website from rules text · editorial
- Federal Reserve statement from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Later-meeting Fed funds range anchors near 3.50-3.75 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 95% above 3.50% and only 28% above 3.75%, placing the market-implied Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range for this later horizon.
- Resilient ex-gas retail spending supports the view that the economy does not need emergency rate relief, consistent with the market holding above 3.50%.
- The 28% probability above 3.75% is notably wider than the near-term June contract (6% above 3.75%), suggesting some residual uncertainty about whether tightening resumes later.
- Comparing this ladder to the June meeting ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5, 6% above 3.75%) reveals a modest term-structure premium for the later horizon.
- Fed funds upper bound anchors in the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 91% above 3.50% but only 36% above 3.75%, pinning the implied upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range.
- Beige Book showing mild inflation easing is consistent with a market that sees no near-term rate shock in either direction.
- The 4.0% strike prices at just 4%, and 4.25% and above price at 3% or less, markets are ruling out any aggressive hike path.
- A longer-dated Kalshi ladder for the current period prices 99% above 3.50% and only 3% above 3.75%, echoing the same implied range.
- Fed funds upper bound anchors in 3.50-3.75 percent band Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 92% above 3.50% but only 31% above 3.75%.
- The Beige Book's picture of rising activity and only marginal inflation easing is consistent with the market's central scenario of a hold near current levels.
- A separate ladder for a later meeting shows 86% above 3.50% but only 34% above 3.75%, nearly identical to this one, suggesting markets see no imminent move.
- Producer prices fell by the largest amount since the pandemic per Story 6, which argues against rate hikes, consistent with the low probability above 3.75%.
- Near-term hike consensus hardens on Waller urgency signal Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi pins the September 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range, pricing 60% above 3.75% but only 8% above 4.0%.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller's near-term hike call is broadly consistent with a market-implied range just above current levels, not pricing a dramatic overshoot.
- A companion near-term ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) prices only 36% above 3.75%, showing the market sees meaningful but not certain follow-through on Waller's urgency.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; any July or September hike that clears 4.0% would sharply reprice the tail, currently at just 8%.
- Year-end Fed funds consensus anchors in 3.50-3.75 percent range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 91% above 3.50 percent but only 31% above 3.75 percent, implying the market-implied upper bound sits in the 3.50-3.75 percent range.
- Waller's inflation-first framing aligns with this distribution: the market is not pricing a return to restrictive territory above 4 percent, nor rapid cuts below 3.50 percent.
- A companion Kalshi ladder for a nearer horizon shows 98% above 3.50 percent and only 19% above 3.75 percent, suggesting the term structure is nearly flat and the market sees little change between now and year-end.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcements through the final 2026 FOMC meeting.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26sep |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
"slug": "kxfed-26sep",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, September 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"us-economy",
"federal-reserve",
"interest-rates"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26195,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}