Federal funds rate upper bound, September 2026 meeting [ resolved 2026-09-16 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-09-16 | 100.0% | — | $5.4K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-09-16 | 100.0% | — | $6.5K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-09-16 | 100.0% | — | $6.5K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-09-16 | 100.0% | $459 | $24K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-09-16 | 100.0% | $9.9K | $53K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-09-16 | 0.0% | $17 | $905 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-09-16 | 0.0% | $5 | $149 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-09-16 | 0.0% | — | $39 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-09-16 | 0.0% | — | $15 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-09-16 | 0.0% | $0 | $7 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-09-16 | 0.0% | — | $5 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Federal Reserve Board of Governors committed source Federal Reserve's official website from rules text Federal Reserve statement from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-09-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-09-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-09-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-09-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-09-16 | 100% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-09-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-09-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-09-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-09-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-09-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-09-16 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (11 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Fed funds upper bound seen near 4 percent after hike Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder prices the federal funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.00% range: 87% above 3.75% but only 2% above 4.00%.
- Today's confirmed hike to 3.75-4.00% is directly consistent with the ladder's sharp break between 3.75% and 4.00% strikes.
- Strikes above 4.00% price at just 1-2%, meaning markets see near-zero chance the Fed delivered a larger-than-25-basis-point move.
- The Polymarket contract on any 2026 hike at 95% confirms the direction; the ladder adds granularity on the magnitude, with the market pinning a single 25-basis-point step.
- Fed funds above 3.75% prices in as rate hike nears Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 81% above 3.75%, but only 2% above 4.0%.
- August CPI data released Sept. 11 matched forecasts on headline but core beat at 0.3% month-over-month; the Kalshi distribution is fully consistent with a 25bp hike, not a larger move.
- Volume on this ladder surged 61x day-over-day, signaling a sharp burst of fresh positioning around the FOMC meeting this week.
- The Polymarket contract on Bank of England rate hikes in 2026 sits at 81%, suggesting global central bank tightening pressure is broadly repricing in tandem.
- Fed hold in September stays near fully priced Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the September 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, with 99% above 3.50% but only 2% above 3.75%.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller's hold signal is fully consistent with this pricing; the market already implied a pause before his remarks.
- Kalshi at 99% above 2.75% shows no credible tail for aggressive cuts back toward pre-2025 levels.
- A longer-horizon ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) prices 72% above 3.75% and 31% above 4.00%, suggesting the market sees meaningful odds of a hike at a later meeting.
- Traders back rates staying above 3.50% after the Fed 98% · $212K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 98% chance the fed funds upper bound holds above 3.50% post-meeting, leaving almost no room for a cut.
- 24h volume of $212K is 87% of the contract's entire all-time handle, a near-record single-day flush.
- With a Fed decision imminent, traders are locking in the no-cut view at extreme conviction levels.
- Contract resolves on the rate announced at the next FOMC meeting.
- Fed funds upper bound seen near 3.75 to 4 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 50% above 3.75% but only 1% above 4.0%.
- Warsh's focus on inflation over employment suggests the market-implied rate near 3.75-4.0% could shift higher if price data stays elevated.
- The sharp drop from 50% at 3.75% to 1% at 4.0% shows the market treats 4.0% as a tail outcome despite Warsh's hawkish rhetoric.
- Combined with the 68% Polymarket hike probability, the ladder implies the expected hike would land the rate in the 3.75-4.0% zone, not above.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26sep |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
"slug": "kxfed-26sep",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, September 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"us-economy",
"federal-reserve",
"interest-rates"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 96925,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}