Federal funds rate upper bound, September 2026 meeting [ resolves 2026-09-23 (50D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-09-23 | 99.0% | — | $5.4K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-09-23 | 99.0% | — | $6.5K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-09-23 | 99.0% | — | $6.5K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-09-23 | 98.0% | $459 | $24K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-09-23 | 48.0% | $9.9K | $53K | A | KXFED-26SEP-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-09-23 | 2.0% | $17 | $905 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-09-23 | 1.0% | $5 | $149 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-09-23 | 1.0% | — | $39 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-09-23 | 1.0% | — | $15 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-09-23 | 1.0% | $0 | $7 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-09-23 | 1.0% | — | $5 | A | KXFED-26SEP-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Federal Reserve Board of Governors committed source Federal Reserve's official website from rules text Federal Reserve statement from rules text
recent wire items
- Fed hold in September stays near fully priced Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the September 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, with 99% above 3.50% but only 2% above 3.75%.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller's hold signal is fully consistent with this pricing; the market already implied a pause before his remarks.
- Kalshi at 99% above 2.75% shows no credible tail for aggressive cuts back toward pre-2025 levels.
- A longer-horizon ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) prices 72% above 3.75% and 31% above 4.00%, suggesting the market sees meaningful odds of a hike at a later meeting.
- Traders back rates staying above 3.50% after the Fed 98% · $212K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 98% chance the fed funds upper bound holds above 3.50% post-meeting, leaving almost no room for a cut.
- 24h volume of $212K is 87% of the contract's entire all-time handle, a near-record single-day flush.
- With a Fed decision imminent, traders are locking in the no-cut view at extreme conviction levels.
- Contract resolves on the rate announced at the next FOMC meeting.
- Fed funds upper bound seen near 3.75 to 4 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 50% above 3.75% but only 1% above 4.0%.
- Warsh's focus on inflation over employment suggests the market-implied rate near 3.75-4.0% could shift higher if price data stays elevated.
- The sharp drop from 50% at 3.75% to 1% at 4.0% shows the market treats 4.0% as a tail outcome despite Warsh's hawkish rhetoric.
- Combined with the 68% Polymarket hike probability, the ladder implies the expected hike would land the rate in the 3.75-4.0% zone, not above.
- Fed funds upper bound seen near 3.75% after Jackson Hole Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the federal funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50%, but only 47% above 3.75%, with trading volume up over 1,100x day over day.
- Warsh's price-first messaging at Jackson Hole is consistent with the ladder's sharp break above 3.75%, where probability collapses to 2%.
- The volume surge signals Warsh's speech is drawing intense fresh attention to the near-term rate path.
- The Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decisions; any September hike would shift the upper bound and reprice the full ladder.
- Fed funds near 3.5 percent after next meeting, market holds Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 99% odds the upper bound stays above 3.5%, but only 32% above 3.75%, implying consensus at 3.5-3.75%.
- Unchanged July PCE inflation at 3.7% and unrevised Q2 GDP of 1.5% support the market's hold-rate pricing.
- A companion Kalshi ladder for a later meeting (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) prices 53% above 3.75% and 17% above 4.0%, signaling modest tightening risk in the outer months.
- Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official federal funds rate announcement following the relevant FOMC meeting.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26sep |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
"slug": "kxfed-26sep",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, September 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"us-economy",
"federal-reserve",
"interest-rates"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 96925,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}