Fed funds upper bound seen near 3.75% after Jackson Hole

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082801",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the federal funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50%, but only 47% above 3.75%, with trading volume up over 1,100x day over day.",
    "Warsh's price-first messaging at Jackson Hole is consistent with the ladder's sharp break above 3.75%, where probability collapses to 2%.",
    "The volume surge signals Warsh's speech is drawing intense fresh attention to the near-term rate path.",
    "The Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decisions; any September hike would shift the upper bound and reprice the full ladder."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "newsweek.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/fed-chair-focuses-on-prices-after-us-economy-sheds-more-jobs-than-thought-12380513",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized price stability as the Fed's top priority at Jackson Hole, signaling potential rate hikes amid persistent inflation.",
      "publisher": "newsweek.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/fed-chair-focuses-on-prices-after-us-economy-sheds-more-jobs-than-thought-12380513"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on the federal funds upper bound saw trading volume rise over 1,100x day over day, the dominant rate-path signal post-Jackson Hole."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "newsweek.com: Fed chair focuses on prices after US economy sheds more jobs than thou",
      "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/fed-chair-focuses-on-prices-after-us-economy-sheds-more-jobs-than-thought-12380513",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}